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Should Tommy John be in the Hall of Fame?
1. Yes
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Feature
 
 
Hall of Fame Trial - Jeff Kent

Coppernoll
on 02/19/2007

 

Career Highlights

5 All-Stars
4 Silver Sluggers
2000 NL MVP
Career leader in Home Runs by a Second Baseman

Baseball-reference.com comparison... 4 of 10 similar batters have been elected to the Hall of Fame (2 not yet eligible).

Since its inception, the Hall of Fame has had its "magic numbers." 3000 hits gets you in, 500 homers will do it, 300 wins is an automatic. If you can't do that, then be a nice guy, make ‘em love you and they'll vote you in sooner or later. It's a simple formula, play long enough to hit a magic number, or be a smiley guy on good teams... that's all it takes.

Jeff Kent is a player who will test that theory. He's done something that should get him in by itself, but what he's done is not time-honored and steeped in silly baseball writer tradition... and he is not known as the smiley guy on the good teams. Something's going to give, this one could get messy.

Kent was not drafted until round 20 in 1989, when he was selected by Toronto. A collegiate shortstop, Kent was switched to second base. This is a key fact for this discussion, had Kent not been a second baseman, this article probably would never have been written, as Kent would be remembered as a solid hitter with a nice peak, but little more.

Once destiny lent a hand, Mr Kent went on to hit more home runs than any second baseman in MLB history.

One would think that would do it, more home runs than anyone at his position, no failed steroid test...it might take a few ballots, but the writers won't overlook this feat, he's in.

The problem is, that single stat is almost Kent's entire case for induction. He's nowhere near 3000 hits, he won't get to 500 home runs, he doesn't have the warm personality, or the defensive credentials that push borderline bats into the Hall. He has 345 home runs, which is 44 more than Rogers Hornsby, who is the closest to him among second basemen. That's it, Kent does have an MVP award, but the only stats he's ever lead his league in are, extra-base hits one time, and sac flies twice. That's not exactly bulletin board material for the voters. If you compare him to second basemen, Kent looks solid, if you compare him to Hall of Fame bats in general, or even to the best bats of his generation, his case is not overwhelming.

As with any subject for this series, Mr Kent deserves his statistical comparison to his Hall of Fame peers. In this case, where we need power hitting second basemen, the options are limited. Out of necessity, I compared Kent to a group consisting of Rogers Hornsby, Bobby Doerr, Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg, there really aren't any additional matches among current Hall of Fame members.

S = Seasons played, 162 games = one season

SRunsHits2B3BHRRBISBAVEOPS
12.695174404271107.289.860Kent
13.7103180327199122.300.862Group

Kent seems to compare well to the control group. He's in the neighborhood for hits and runs, he has a clear edge in homers and runs batted in, a surprisingly strong doubles total and an OPS that's right in line. Offensively, the only place he doesn't match up is stolen bases, which is to be expected.

I would have to bet that Kent will indeed be elected to the Hall of Fame one day. I would guess it will take a few years on the ballot, but when the writers really look at his numbers compared to the greats at his position, they will have no choice but to vote him in. As far as my own personal vote, it's much the same. I'm not blown away by Kent's career, but in the end I don't suppose I can deny his offensive impact as a second baseman.

My vote is a very bland yes.

 




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