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Should Tommy John be in the Hall of Fame?
1. Yes
2. No











 
Feature
 
 
Hall of Fame Trial - Tommy John

Coppernoll
on 01/03/2008

 

Career Highlights

4 All-Stars
Top 5 in League ERA six times
20th All-Time in Innings Pitched
25th All-Time in Wins

Led his League In

Three Times

Shutouts

One Time

Winning Percentage
BB/9 IP

Baseball-reference.com comparisons

6 of 10 similar pitchers currently in Hall of Fame (one not yet eligible)

Makes Hall of Fame in 1 of 4 Measurements (Hall of Fame Monitor)

Tommy John – if I stop talking right there, you're not thinking of anything he did on the field. Images of countless players who have had the surgery that bears his name begin springing to mind – that procedure changed baseball forever.

In its own right, John's willingness to have that experimental surgery may be enough for him to be elected to the Hall of Fame as a baseball pioneer. Is there a major league pitching staff without at least one member who has had that operation? It's cliche now, "Player X needs Tommy John, he'll miss a year, but once he gets his strength back, his elbow will be stronger than ever." For that, Mr John deserves a mention, and an artifact or two in Cooperstown, but were his accomplishments as a pitcher enough to get him enshrined?

John debuted in the major leagues in 1963, appearing in six games for the Cleveland Indians, at the age of 20. Tommy appeared in 25 games for Cleveland in '64, before being dealt to the Chicago White Sox, where he would spend the next seven seasons. John established himself as a major leaguer during his time in Chicago, making his first All-Star team in 1968, never posting an ERA above 3.61, and averaging over 11 wins per season. John was solid, but not irreplaceable, which explains his inclusion in the deal that brought Dick Allen to Chicago, from the Dodgers.

John's stint with the Dodgers began in 1972, which was Tommy's age-29 season. His first two years in LA saw a combined record of 27-12 - John's star was on the rise, as he set a new career high with 16 wins in '73.

1974 was a magical season in LA, with the Dodgers taking the NL West title, winning 102 games, before ultimately reaching the World Series. It was a great place to pitch, with an offense featuring Jimmy Wynn and the young infield of Garvey-Lopes-Cey and Russell... not to mention being backed by Cy Young winner Mike Marshall in the bullpen. John was taking full advantage, through 22 starts, his record stood at 13-3, with an ERA of 2.59. Everything was clicking - it was a wonderful time to be Tommy John.

Then came "The Moment" in Tommy John's career. July 17, 1974, Tommy John is facing the Montreal Expos in Dodger Stadium... he leaves the game in the top of the third with a ruptured ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow – "Dead Arm" as it was then known, was a death sentence for pitcher's career. A desperate John told Dr Frank Jobe to "make something up" to heal his elbow – history was made, a career was saved, and baseball was changed forever.

Dr Jobe removed a piece of tendon from John's right arm, and used it to repair Tommy's damaged left elbow. Jobe told John he had a "1 in 100" chance of resuming his pitching career, but at least he would have a stable left elbow for the rest of his life. John spent the next eighteen months rehabbing, and refusing to believe it could not be done.

April 16, 1976 – Tommy John is the starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers vs the Braves, in Atlanta. The Braves win the game 3-1, as John takes the loss, allowing three earned runs in five innings. Tommy John would pitch in the major leagues for thirteen more seasons.

John appeared in the World Series for the Dodgers in both 1977 and 1978, before leaving for the Yankees, with a big free agent payday. John was outstanding for the Yankees in both 1979 and 1980, concluding a four-year run that saw him win 80 games.

Tommy also made postseason appearances for the 1980 and 1981 Yankees, and the '82 California Angels, before his career began a sloppy, prolonged closing stage. John retired with 288 wins, a .555 winning percentage, and an ERA of 3.34.

So, getting right to the numbers, how does John compare to the elected Hall of Famers from his era?

Typically, I compare a player to all similar Hall of Famers who were active during that player's career, in John's case, I will not. John's career spanned 26 seasons, if I used every pitcher possible, I'd have a mammoth list that began with Warren Spahn's debut in 1942 and stretched all the way to Nolan Ryan's retirement in 1993. This list would include the likes of Robin Roberts, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, and even Satchel Paige.

I choose instead to focus on the heart of John's career, which would be the late 1960s through the early 1980s – and, to keep it interesting - I'll compare John to the same control group I used for fellow Hall candidate Bert Blyleven.

The control group in this case consists of Bob Gibson, Gaylord Perry, Catfish Hunter, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton. As always, all comparisons are done on a per season basis...

S=Seasons, W=Wins, L=Losses, CG=Complete Games, SHO=Shutouts, HR=Home Runs Allowed, BB=Walks Allowed, K=Strikeouts, ERA=Earned Run Average, 34 starts or 68 relief appearances=1 season.

S W L CG SHO HR BB K ERA
19.4 15.2 11.8 12.2 2.7 20.2 80.3 161.8 3.13 Group
21.4 13.4 10.7 7.5 2.1 14.1 58.8 104.9 3.34 John
20.2 14.2 12.3 11.9 2.9 21.2 65.4 183.2 3.31 Blyleven
John pitched longer than the average of the control group, which actually hurts his case in some respects. John pitched two full seasons more than the control group averaged, but he averaged nearly two fewer wins per season, which acts as a 1-2 punch, knocking some of the luster off of his 288 career victories. Also on the negative side, John is nowhere near the Hall of Famers in complete games, his shutout total is respectable, but is weak in comparison, and his ERA is in that same category – not a deal killer, but certainly not an asset either. John is woefully low in career strikeouts, this doesn't mean he was not an outstanding pitcher, but the gap here between John and these peers is huge, which simply must be noted. On the plus side, John destroys the competition in Home Runs Allowed. Just as the low strikeouts have to

be mentioned, so does John's advantage of 6 fewer home runs given up per season- the difference here is 43% in John's favor. John also walked far fewer batters than the control group - 21.5 fewer bases on balls per season. In these categories, the two extra seasons make John's advantage seem more impressive, he did it better, and he did it longer.

Tommy John's peak seasons were excellent. He was a winner, who forced ground ball after ground ball by soft-tossing the outside corner at the knee. He is a man of decency and class, who has impressed me in every interview of himself that I've ever seen. As stated, John's contribution to sports medicine was monumental, and may be enough to warrant his election to the Hall of Fame as a baseball pioneer (yes, that is a category, technically, it is executive/pioneer).

Even so, given the facts, I cannot endorse Tommy John for the Hall of Fame as a player. I could overlook the glaring lack of strikeouts, because I know that wasn't John's game – but when you also look at the low wins per season, and the low complete games, and then you consider the very pedestrian ERA, it's just too many negatives for me to say yes. Tommy hung on forever...and ever – that's a negative in my book too. His counting stats do not tip the scales on their own, when you realize how long he pitched, the fact that he did not get to 300 wins, etc is magnified.

I like Tommy John, I remember him as a winner, but my vote in this case, is no.

 




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