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In the first half of this retrospective, the Brewers' representatives on each of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects lists were compiled and broken down by their year, placement, position, and number of appearances. This time, each Brewers player who has appeared on one or more of the Baseball America rankings will be evaluated in terms of their eventual contributions (or lack thereof) at the big league level.
As was the case with the Daily Brew's breakdown of the Top Ten Pitching Seasons and Top Ten Hitting Seasons in franchise history, this analysis will rely on a statistical tool developed by Baseball Prospectus. A handy way to compare both position players and pitchers in different leagues and in different seasons, BP's Wins Above Replacement Player is a measure of a given player's contributions in wins, both offensively and defensively, compared with a replacement player at his position. The resulting number is adjusted for ballpark and league difficulty as well as the length of the season (to accommodate shortened seasons) and is labeled WARP3.
Each Brewers' representative is profiled below in chronological order according to their first appearance on Baseball America's lists. This is followed by the player's career statistics at the Major and Minor League level with those for the year(s) the player was ranked by BA in grey text. For hitters, the statistics included are games (G), at-bats (AB), doubles (2B), home runs (HR), walks (BB), strikeouts (SO), batting average (AVG), on-base average (OBA), slugging average (SLG), and on-base plus slugging (OPS). In some cases, complete statistical records were unavailable; on-base averages accompanied by an asterisk (*) were calculated without the benefit of sacrifice and hit-by-pitch data and thus are only an estimation (hits plus walks divided by at-bats plus walks). For pitchers, the statistics included are games (G) and games started (GS), innings pitched (IP), hits (H), walks (BB), strikeouts (SO), and earned run average (ERA).
To measure and compare each player's contributions in the big leagues, these profiles and statistics are followed by a table detailing the player's WARP3 totals in the Majors. For hitters, the table lists the player's plate appearances (PA), Value Over Replacement Player rate (VORPr), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), and WARP3. For pitchers, the statistics include innings pitched (IP), Adjusted Runs Allowed Average (RA+), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), and WARP3. It is this final number that allows pitchers and position players to be compared on relatively equal footing.
The players included in this article were featured on BA's 1990 through 1999 rankings. Of those who have appeared on a Top 100 list since 2000, only one (Nick Neugebauer) is no longer in the organization and likely finished with his career. Because the rest of the team's representatives from 2000-2005 are still in the Brewers' organization, it is still too early to tell whether their placements were justified and how valuable they will be in the big leagues. The same is also true for a handful of the players included in this article; Cal Eldred, Jeff D'Amico, Geoff Jenkins, Valerio de los Santos, and Ronnie Belliard are still playing at the big league level. For the most part, however, the 1990-1999 break-off point will allow for both an interesting and enlightening retrospective. At the conclusion of the player profiles, this article will break down each player's career contributions as well as their single-season and three-season peaks.
GREG VAUGHN - 1990 (#09)
Vaughn was the fourth overall pick in the Secondary Phase of the 1986 June Amateur Draft, part of an outstanding class of Brewers picks that included Gary Sheffield and Darryl Hamilton. A star slugger at the University of Miami, Vaughn tore through the minor leagues like few players in Brewers history. After notching 16 homers in just 66 games and earning All-Star honors at Rookie-Level Helena in his professional debut, Vaughn crushed 33 dingers and posted a 1018 OPS for Single-A Beloit. That performance earned him an appearance on the Midwest League's All-Star team, Baseball America's Class A All-Star team, and the Midwest League's MVP Award. El Paso was the next stop on Vaughn's tour through the minors and he cracked 28 longballs and a career-high 39 doubles with the Diablos and was again named to both his league's All-Star team and the Baseball America Double-A club. Vaughn spent the 1989 season with Triple-A Denver and continued to dominate; his 26 homers and 924 OPS were enough to earn him the American Association MVP and both league and Baseball America All-Star nods. He was recalled to the big leagues in August and hit .265 with five homers and a 761 OPS in 38 games, a line good enough to place him in the top ten prospects on Baseball America's inaugural list.
Inserted into the Brewers lineup for good in 1990, Vaughn experienced difficulties adjusting to the big leagues and his batting and on-base averages plummeted. By 1993, however, he had turned things around and began to fulfill the potential he flashed in the minors. A four-time All-Star, Vaughn finished fourth in the NL MVP vote twice and finished third in his league in home runs in both 1998 and 1999. By that time, however, he had already departed from Milwaukee; after being dealt along with Gerald Parent to the Padres for Bryce Florie, Marc Newfield, and Ron Villone, Vaughn was shipped to the Reds with Mark Sweeney for Damian Jackson, Reggie Sanders, and Josh Harris. He signed a huge free agent contract with the Devil Rays in 2000 and finished his career in 2003 with the Rockies. Over his 15 years in the Majors, Vaughn batted .242 with 355 homers and an 807 OPS, twelve percent better than the league average.
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Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
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1986 Helena R+ 66 258 13 16 30 69 .291 .363 .543 906
1987 Beloit A 139 492 31 33 102 115 .305 .425 .593 1018
1988 El Paso AA 131 505 39 28 63 120 .301 .379 .552 931
1989 Denver AAA 110 387 17 26 62 94 .276 .376 .548 924
Milwaukee MLB 38 113 3 5 13 23 .265 .336 .425 761
1990 Milwaukee MLB 120 382 26 17 33 91 .220 .280 .432 712
1991 Milwaukee MLB 145 542 24 27 62 125 .244 .319 .456 774
1992 Milwaukee MLB 141 501 18 23 60 123 .228 .313 .409 723
1993 Milwaukee MLB 154 569 28 30 89 118 .267 .369 .482 850
1994 Milwaukee MLB 95 370 24 19 51 93 .254 .345 .478 824
Beloit A 2 6 0 0 4 1 .167 .500* .167 667
1995 Milwaukee MLB 108 392 19 17 55 89 .224 .317 .408 725
1996 Milwaukee MLB 102 375 16 31 58 99 .280 .378 .571 948
San Diego MLB 43 141 3 10 24 31 .206 .328 .454 783
1997 San Diego MLB 120 361 10 18 56 110 .216 .322 .393 716
1998 San Diego MLB 158 573 28 50 79 121 .272 .363 .597 960
1999 Cincinnati MLB 153 550 20 45 85 137 .245 .347 .535 881
2000 Tampa Bay MLB 127 461 27 28 80 128 .254 .365 .499 864
2001 Tampa Bay MLB 136 485 25 24 71 130 .233 .333 .433 766
2002 Tampa Bay MLB 69 251 10 8 41 82 .163 .286 .315 601
2003 CO Springs AAA 35 116 7 12 16 28 .302 .388 .690 1078
Colorado MLB 22 37 3 3 8 13 .189 .326 .514 809
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A free swinger who racked up lots of strikeouts, walks, and homers, Vaughn put together two and a half very good seasons with Milwaukee: 1991, 1993, and 1996 (until he was traded to San Diego). Never much of a defensive player, Vaughn nonetheless went on to enjoy a solid career with the Padres, Reds, and Devil Rays and racked up a VORP of 323.4 and 58.9 WARP3.
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Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
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1989 MIL LF 128 .214 6.6 1.0
1990 MIL LF 429 .056 5.6 1.7
1991 MIL LF 614 .205 29.0 7.4
1992 MIL LF 573 .096 12.9 5.2
1993 MIL LF 667 .302 47.3 6.3
1994 MIL LF 423 .197 19.2 4.4
1995 MIL DH 451 .009 0.9 1.3
1996 MIL LF 442 .387 38.8 4.8
SD LF 167 .115 4.3 1.6
1997 SD LF 422 .079 7.7 2.0
1998 SD LF 661 .456 70.3 9.7
1999 CIN LF 643 .284 42.0 6.9
2000 TBA LF 545 .251 31.9 5.1
2001 TBA DH 562 .124 16.6 3.6
2002 TBA DH 297 -.151 -10.5 0.3
2003 COL LF 46 .161 1.7 0.4
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NARCISO ELVIRA - 1990 (#23), 1991 (#76)
A native of Mexico, Elvira was acquired in 1986 when the Brewers purchased his contract from a Mexican League team. A southpaw with a good fastball and plus breaking pitch, he made four appearances with Milwaukee in 1990 but has never been back on a big league mound. After striking-out well over a batter per inning in Beloit and Stockton, Elvira hit the wall at Double-A and a combination of injuries (to his pitching arm and back) and ineffectiveness quickly dampened the Brewers' hopes of unearthing the next Teddy Higuera. Elvira became a free agent in 1992 when he refused his assignment to Triple-A and has since bounced from team to team and continent to continent, pitching in the U.S., Mexico, Japan, and Korea. He tossed two no-hitters in 1999 for the Campeche Pirates of the Mexican League and another in 2000 while playing in Japan. He's still going strong and posted a 3.94 ERA last season at age 37 in the Mexican League.
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Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
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1986 Leon MXL 31/19 127.0 128 84 86 5.95
1987 Leon MXL 33/19 109.1 104 62 80 5.27
Beloit A 4/4 27.0 15 12 29 1.33
1988 Stockton A+ 25/23 135.1 76 79 161 2.93
1989 Stockton A+ 17/17 115.1 92 43 135 3.04
El Paso AA 7/7 33.0 48 23 18 7.64
1990 Beloit A 8/7 38.1 37 9 45 2.35
El Paso AA 4/4 18.0 17 6 12 4.50
Milwaukee MLB 4/0 5.0 6 5 5 5.40
1991 Denver AAA 18/13 80.0 100 40 52 5.96
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Certainly one of the most disappointing Brewers on Baseball America's All-Time list, Elvira contributed just five innings of below-replacement-level pitching in the big leagues in 1990.
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Year IP RA+ VORP WARP3
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1990 5.0 79 -0.2 0.0
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ANGEL MIRANDA - 1991 (#81)
Volatile on the mound and off it, Miranda spent his career with the Brewers in a constant battle with weight problems, temper tantrums, injuries, and wildness. When he was on, his screwball and fastball formed a potent one-two punch that confounded opposing hitters. After making a splash in his initial call-up in 1993, the Puerto Rican native missed most of the 1994 and 1995 seasons with a pair of knee injuries and was never able to rediscover his earlier form. The Brewers finally cut ties with him early in the 1997 season, prompting him to throw a chair, and Miranda spent the remainder of that season with the Indians' and Rangers' Triple-A clubs.
He latched on with Boston the following season and has continued to hold on ever since, suiting up for teams in several independent leagues including the North Atlantic League (in 1999), the Mexican League (2000), the Atlantic League (2000-2004), and the Northeast (or Can-Am) League (2004). Still only 35, Miranda pitched for the Allentown Aces last season, a "replacement" team that played their entire 92-game schedule on the road.
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Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
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1987 Helena R+ 13/NA 21.2 12 16 32 2.49
Butte R+ 12/NA 21.2 15 10 29 3.74
1988 Helena R+ 14/NA 60.2 54 58 75 3.86
Stockton A+ 16/NA 26.1 20 37 36 7.18
1989 Beloit A 43/NA 63.0 39 32 88 0.86
1990 Stockton A+ 52/NA 108.1 75 49 138 2.66
1991 El Paso AA 38/NA 74.1 55 41 86 2.54
Denver AAA 11/NA 11.2 10 17 14 6.17
1992 Denver AAA 28/NA 160.1 183 77 122 4.77
1993 New Orleans AAA 9/NA 18.1 11 10 24 3.44
Milwaukee MLB 22/17 120.0 100 52 88 3.30
1994 Milwaukee MLB 8/8 46.0 39 27 24 5.28
Beloit A 2/NA 10.0 11 1 14 2.70
New Orleans AAA 3/NA 13.0 11 7 9 3.46
1995 Milwaukee MLB 30/10 74.0 83 49 45 5.23
1996 Milwaukee MLB 46/12 109.3 116 69 78 4.94
1997 Milwaukee MLB 10/0 14.0 17 9 8 3.86
Stockton A+ 1/NA 2.0 0 2 2 0.00
Buffalo AAA 9/NA 11.2 20 5 9 10.03
Oklahoma City AAA 2/NA 2.2 4 1 2 16.88
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Miranda was a valuable pitcher in 1993 and continued to contribute modestly for the rest of his tenure with the Brewers. For his career, Miranda accumulated 10.6 WARP3 while posting an ERA seven percent better than his league's average.
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Year IP RA+ VORP WARP3
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1993 120.0 112 24.9 3.6
1994 46.0 100 5.5 1.4
1995 74.0 96 5.5 2.0
1996 109.1 101 15.1 3.2
1997 14.0 130 3.6 0.3
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TYRONE HILL - 1992 (#20), 1993 (#10), 1994 (#54)
One of the biggest busts in franchise history, Hill was selected with the 15th pick in the 1991 draft as compensation for Rob Deer's departure for Detroit. The second of the club's two first rounders, Hill signed almost immediately while fellow prep hurler Kenny Henderson (a 6-foot-7 right-hander from Ringgold, Georgia) opted to enroll at the University of Miami when the Brewers refused to accede to his demand for a seven figure contract. Henderson was drafted in the second round of the 1994 draft by the Expos, turning down a $350,000 bonus, and again in the fifth round in 1995, this time rejecting $60,000. He eventually signed for $55,000 as an outfielder and his career went nowhere fast.
A product of Yucaipa High School in Southern California, Hill was projected as a late first rounder but was plucked early by the Brewers after the Indians took Manny Ramirez and the Expos took Cliff Floyd. He signed for $280,000--a veritable bargain compared to fellow lefty and first overall pick Brien Taylor, who netted a $1.55 million contract, the largest in baseball history--and was assigned to Helena of the Rookie-level Pioneer League.
Rated the top prospect in the Brewers organization by Baseball America, he wowed scouts the following season with Single-A Beloit and was named the starting pitcher in the Midwest League All-Star Game. A rail-thin, 6-foot-6 tower on the mound, Hill was shut down for the season with elbow tendinitis in mid-August but returned in time to pitch in the Arizona Fall League. After only 19 starts with Advanced-A Stockton in 1993, however, he went down with a torn rotator cuff and his once-promising career was functionally finished. He missed all of the 1994 season and made just nine appearances between 1995 and 1996 before another shoulder injury forced him to retire at the tender age of 24. The waste of potential was profound; when healthy, Hill was considered by many as one of the most dominating pitchers in Midwest League history.
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Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
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1991 Helena R+ 11/11 60.0 43 35 76 3.15
1992 Beloit A 20/19 113.2 76 74 133 3.25
1993 Stockton A+ 19/17 66.0 43 60 65 4.50
1994 ----------------------- DID NOT PITCH ----------------------
1995 AZL Brewers R 4/4 11.1 8 5 9 3.18
1996 Stockton A+ 5/NA 19.2 18 9 11 5.03
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One of only two Brewers on Baseball America's Top 100 lists never to make the big leagues, Hill finished his career without ever tasting Double-A.
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Year IP RA+ VORP WARP3
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----- NO MAJOR LEAGUE RECORD -----
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DAVE NILSSON - 1992 (#29)
Signed as an amateur free agent as a 17-year old, Nilsson was a much-ballyhooed Australian hitting prospect when he arrived in the U.S. in 1987 and tore through Pioneer League pitching. Converted from first-base to catcher by Milwaukee, he experienced growing pains as he climbed the ladder but had made it to Milwaukee by 1992. Only 22 and the first native-Australian to play everyday in the big leagues, Nilsson hit .232 with a 658 OPS in 51 games for the Brewers and was back for good in 1993 after a stint in the minors.
For the next six seasons, he was a staple in the Brewers lineup and one of the team's most productive offensive players. Sidelined for the beginning of the 1995 season with Ross River Fever, Nilsson moved to the outfield and split his time between right, left, first-base, and designated hitter until returning to catcher in 1999. That season he hit .284 with a 954 OPS and earned All-Star honors but was limited to just 404 plate appearances because of injuries. He became a free agent after the season but received offers well below his 1999 salary of just under $6 million. Rather than return to the big leagues, the 30-year old signed on with a team in Japan and played in the 2000 Olympics for Australia. While he received a few offers to return to the States, Nilsson spent the next three seasons in retirement before returning briefly with the Braves' Triple-A club in 2004.
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Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
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1987 Helena R+ 55 188 13 1 5 7 .394 .412* .479 891
1988 Beloit A 95 332 15 4 25 49 .223 .283* .316 599
1989 Stockton A+ 125 472 16 5 50 76 .244 .321* .335 656
1990 Stockton A+ 107 359 22 7 43 36 .290 .369* .426 795
1991 El Paso AA 65 249 24 5 27 14 .418 .476* .598 1074
Denver AAA 28 95 8 1 17 16 .232 .352* .347 699
1992 Denver AAA 66 240 16 3 23 19 .317 .380* .479 859
Milwaukee MLB 51 164 8 4 17 18 .232 .304 .354 658
1993 El Paso AA 5 17 1 1 2 4 .471 .527* .706 1233
New Orleans AAA 17 61 6 1 5 6 .344 .397* .492 889
Milwaukee MLB 100 296 10 7 37 36 .257 .336 .375 711
1994 Milwaukee MLB 109 397 28 12 34 61 .275 .326 .451 777
1995 Beloit A 3 11 3 1 2 0 .545 .614* 1.091 1705
El Paso AA 5 15 1 1 0 1 .467 .469* .733 1202
New Orleans AAA 3 9 0 1 2 0 .444 .546* .778 1324
Milwaukee MLB 81 263 12 12 24 41 .278 .337 .468 804
1996 Milwaukee MLB 123 453 33 17 57 68 .331 .407 .525 932
New Orleans AAA 7 26 1 1 4 3 .269 .339 .437 776
1997 Milwaukee MLB 156 554 33 20 65 88 .278 .352 .446 798
1998 Milwaukee MLB 102 309 14 12 33 48 .269 .339 .437 776
Beloit A 4 12 3 1 2 0 .417 .501* .917 1418
El Paso AA 5 17 3 0 2 0 .294 .372* .471 843
1999 Milwaukee MLB 115 343 19 21 53 64 .309 .400 .554 954
2004 Richmond AAA 16 55 1 1 7 15 .236 .323 .309 632
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Never much of a defensive catcher, Nilsson struggled with injuries but was an effective hitter even as an outfielder or first-baseman when healthy. In a big league career that ended after only his age-29 season, Nilsson accumulated 23.8 WARP3 and posted a .271 Equivalent Average.
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Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
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1992 MIL C 183 .076 3.3 1.8
1993 MIL C 340 .112 8.9 2.0
1994 MIL C 440 .178 18.1 3.0
1995 MIL RF 294 .172 11.7 2.7
1996 MIL RF 516 .410 48.0 5.3
1997 MIL 1B 627 .179 26.8 3.8
1998 MIL 1B 347 .129 10.5 1.1
1999 MIL C 404 .491 44.7 4.9
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DUANE SINGLETON - 1992 (#69)
A good defensive center-fielder with a strong arm and speed on the basepaths, Singleton was the Brewers' fifth-round pick in the 1990 June Amateur Draft. Despite his quickness, the 6-foot-1 native of Staten Island barely broke even on stolen base attempts and never developed into even a serviceable hitter. Milwaukee traded him to the Tigers in 1996 for Henry Santos, a left-handed reliever who never made it to the show. Singleton, for his part, spent two games with the Brewers in 1994, thirteen in 1995, and 18 with the Tigers in 1996. He racked up eleven hits, only one for extra-bases (a double), and struck-out 25 times in 87 at-bats. Detroit released him after the season and he was out of baseball after a poor Triple-A campaign in 1997.
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Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
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1990 AZL Brewers R 46 134 6 1 43 39 .231 .418* .358 776
1991 Beloit A 101 388 13 3 40 57 .289 .355* .381 736
1992 Salinas A+ 19 72 5 1 6 11 .306 .359* .472 831
Stockton A+ 97 389 15 5 39 66 .288 .353* .416 769
1993 El Paso AA 125 456 21 2 34 90 .230 .284* .316 600
1994 Stockton A+ 38 134 5 4 18 23 .291 .375* .425 800
El Paso AA 39 139 11 2 19 33 .288 .373* .399 772
New Orleans AAA 41 133 4 0 18 26 .278 .364* .383 747
Milwaukee MLB 2 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 000
1995 New Orleans AAA 106 355 10 4 39 63 .268 .340* .352 692
Milwaukee MLB 13 31 0 0 1 10 .065 .094 .065 158
1996 Toledo AAA 88 294 14 8 36 84 .221 .306* .395 701
Detroit MLB 18 56 1 0 4 15 .161 .230 .179 408
1997 Midland AA 13 55 5 2 6 8 .309 .377* .236 613
Vancouver AAA 108 383 17 5 37 79 .206 .276* .305 581
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While Singleton did manage to the make it to the Majors, the teams that employed him would have been better off if he had not. In just under 100 plate appearances, he cost the Brewers and Tigers a half-win apiece compared with a replacement player at his position.
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Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
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1994 MIL -- -- -- -- 0.0
1995 MIL CF 32 -.866 -6.4 -0.5
1996 DET CF 61 -.542 -7.8 -0.5
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CAL ELDRED - 1992 (#85)
The 17th-overall pick in the 1989 draft, Eldred was a workhorse staff ace at the University of Iowa and rose quickly through the minor leagues. He made three starts in September of 1991 and, after spending the first half of the following season at Triple-A Denver, burst onto the scene with a remarkable rookie campaign in 1992. Inserted into the rotation on July 19th, Eldred made 14 starts and posted an 11-2 record and 1.79 ERA and was nearly perfect in August and September, going 10-0 with an ERA under one. He returned to Earth in 1993 and 1994 but was still a solid starter, notching ERAs of 4.01 and 4.68, slightly better than the league average. The extensive workload--he notched 860 and two-thirds innings between 1990 and 1993, an average of just over 215 innings per season--caught up with him, however, and he suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow after just four starts in 1995. Eldred missed the rest of the season with Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery and didn't return until July of 1996, finishing the year with a 4.46 ERA in 84 and two-thirds innings.
Gambling that he would remain healthy, the Brewers inked the 29-year old to a four-year, $14.1 million deal and sorely regretted it almost immediately. Eldred battled more arm injuries for the next three seasons and went 19-31 with a 5.48 ERA while averaging just 139 innings and was traded to the White Sox along with shortstop Jose Valentin before the 2000 season for former-Brewer Jaime Navarro and John Snyder, a 25-year old non-prospect with 40 games of big league experience. It was one of the worst blunders of the Dean Taylor administration; Valentin posted career-best OPSes in 2000 and 2001, Navarro made only five starts before being released with a 12.54 ERA, and the Brewers suffered through 127 innings of below replacement level pitching from Snyder, who hasn't pitched in the big leagues since. And Eldred somehow managed to turn things around, going 10-2 with a 4.58 ERA before a stress fracture in his already-fragile elbow sidelined him for the rest of the season in August.
With a five-inch screw inserted into his elbow, Eldred tried to return for the 2001 campaign but managed only two starts before succumbing to another elbow injury. He announced his retirement and stayed away from the game until a comeback with the Cardinals in 2003. With an elbow resembling Will Smith's bionic arm in I, Robot, Eldred has pitched brilliantly out of the bullpen for St. Louis the past two seasons, posting ERAs of 3.74 and 3.76 while helping the Cards reach the World Series in 2004. A remarkable triumph of sports medicine and orthopedic imagination, he is back with the Redbirds for 2005.
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Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
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1989 Beloit A 5/5 31.1 23 11 32 2.30
1990 Stockton A+ 7/7 50.0 31 19 75 1.62
El Paso AA 19/19 110.1 126 47 93 4.49
1991 Denver AAA 29/29 185.0 161 84 168 3.75
Milwaukee MLB 3/3 16.0 20 6 10 4.50
1992 Denver AAA 19/19 141.0 122 42 99 3.00
Milwaukee MLB 14/14 100.1 76 23 62 1.79
1993 Milwaukee MLB 36/36 258.0 232 91 180 4.01
1994 Milwaukee MLB 25/25 179.0 158 84 98 4.68
1995 Milwaukee MLB 4/4 23.2 24 10 18 3.42
1996 Milwaukee MLB 15/15 84.2 82 38 50 4.46
New Orleans AAA 6/6 32.1 24 17 30 3.34
1997 Milwaukee MLB 34/34 202.0 207 89 122 4.99
1998 Milwaukee MLB 23/23 133.0 157 61 86 4.80
1999 Milwaukee MLB 20/15 82.0 101 46 60 7.79
Huntsville AA 2/2 12.0 13 3 10 7.50
Louisville AAA 4/4 18.2 19 10 21 5.30
2000 Chicago AL MLB 20/20 112.0 103 59 97 4.58
Charlotte AAA 2/2 5.0 4 1 1 7.20
2001 Chicago AL MLB 2/2 6.0 12 3 6 13.50
2002 ----------------------- DID NOT PITCH ----------------------
2003 St. Louis MLB 62/0 67.3 62 31 67 3.74
2004 St. Louis MLB 52/0 67.0 71 17 54 3.76
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Eldred has parts of 13 seasons in the big leagues and has an ERA one percent better than his combined league's averages. A potential ace-in-the-making as a youngster with Milwaukee, he has continued to contribute well into his thirties and after a number of arm surgeries. In total, the right-hander has racked up 36.1 WARP3 and an 85-74 career record.
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Year Team IP RA+ VORP WARP3
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1991 MIL 16.0 86 0.8 0.3
1992 MIL 100.1 223 37.9 5.4
1993 MIL 258.0 106 47.6 8.7
1994 MIL 179.0 114 34.4 6.4
1995 MIL 23.2 145 6.7 0.8
1996 MIL 84.2 124 20.6 2.7
1997 MIL 202.0 95 20.3 4.7
1998 MIL 133.0 85 1.9 1.2
1999 MIL 82.0 60 -18.6 -0.7
2000 CHA 112.0 114 21.8 3.2
2001 CHA 6.0 37 -5.0 -0.3
2002 ---------- DID NOT PLAY -----------
2003 STL 67.1 105 10.0 2.9
2004 STL 67.0 109 11.4 1.7
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JEFF D'AMICO - 1994 (#95), 1996 (#25)
Another in a long-line of injury-plagued Brewers hurlers, D'Amico was the club's first round pick in the 1993 draft out of a Florida high school. Rated sixth among draft-eligible prep players and sixteenth among pitchers by Baseball America, the 6-foot-6, 230-plus pounder signed a $525,000 contract in August and spent the rest of the season in Arizona on a strengthening program. He opened 1994 in Extended Spring Training and missed the entire season because of surgery to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. D'Amico finally made his professional debut in 1995 with Beloit and pitched well enough to earn an All-Star nod and help the Snappers win the Midwest League Championship, leading the team in innings, strikeouts, wins, and ERA.
The Brewers promoted him aggressively and D'Amico jumped to Double-A and then the big leagues in 1996. He went 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA in 17 starts for Milwaukee at the tender age of 20 and 9-7/4.71 in 23 starts in 1997. He missed more than a month with shoulder tendinitis, however, a sign of things to come. Diagnosed with a torn labrum after the season, he underwent arthroscopic surgery in January and a capsular shift in August and did not return to the mound until the end of the 1999 season, appearing in four minor league contests and a single game in the big leagues. He missed time in 2000 with shoulder tendinitis but went 12-7 with a 2.66 ERA in 23 games and the Brewers rewarded him with a one-year, $2.3 million contract for 2001. D'Amico made just four starts before succumbing to another injury and another surgery, this one to decompress the radial nerve in his throwing arm. He became the first big league pitcher to ever undergo the procedure and returned to the Brewers in September, making six starts.
The Brewers traded him in the off-season to the Mets in a complicated three-team deal. In exchange for Jeromy Burnitz, Lou Collier, Mark Sweeney, cash, and D'Amico, the Brewers received Lenny Harris and Glendon Rusch from the Mets and Alex Ochoa from the Rockies. D'Amico spent 2002 with the Mets, 2003 with the Pirates, and 2004 with the Indians, combining for a 16-28 record and 5.09 ERA in 65 games.
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Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
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1995 Beloit A 21/20 132.0 102 31 119 2.39
1996 El Paso AA 13/13 96.0 89 13 76 3.19
Milwaukee MLB 17/17 86.0 88 31 53 5.44
1997 Beloit A 1/1 3.0 0 1 7 0.00
Milwaukee MLB 23/23 135.2 139 43 94 4.71
1998 ----------------------- DID NOT PITCH ----------------------
1999 Beloit A 2/2 8.0 7 1 6 0.00
Huntsville AA 1/1 2.0 6 1 2 36.00
Louisville AAA 1/1 3.1 6 2 2 13.50
Milwaukee MLB 1/0 1.0 1 0 1 0.00
2000 Indianapolis AAA 6/6 31.1 25 11 20 3.16
Milwaukee MLB 23/23 162.1 143 46 101 2.66
2001 Beloit A 2/2 8.1 11 1 6 5.40
Huntsville AA 1/1 7.0 3 2 5 2.57
Milwaukee MLB 10/10 47.3 60 16 32 6.08
2002 New York Mets MLB 29/22 145.2 152 37 101 4.94
2003 Pittsburgh MLB 29/29 175.1 204 42 100 4.77
2004 Lake County A 2/1 2.0 1 0 1 0.00
Buffalo AAA 3/3 10.1 18 3 6 10.45
Cleveland MLB 7/7 30.2 45 6 16 7.63
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D'Amico has one outstanding season to his name, the 2000 campaign in which he ranked tenth in baseball and eighth in the NL in VORP. Beyond that, he has hovered right around replacement level, racking up 16.6 WARP3 in 784 career innings.
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Year Team IP RA+ VORP WARP3
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1996 MIL 86.0 102 11.6 2.4
1997 MIL 135.2 93 11.9 2.8
1998 ---------- DID NOT PLAY -----------
1999 MIL 1.0 -- 0.7 0.0
2000 MIL 162.1 161 58.4 6.8
2001 MIL 47.1 60 -11.2 -0.4
2002 NYN 145.2 82 4.8 2.2
2003 PIT 175.1 85 6.9 3.2
2004 CLE 30.7 57 -7.8 -0.2
=========================================
ANTONE WILLIAMSON - 1995 (#64), 1996 (#81)
The personification of Sal Bando's tenure as Brewers' General Manager, Williamson was, like Bando, a third-baseman from Arizona State. He signed for $895,000 and ascended from Helena to Stockton to El Paso during his first year with the organization. Repeating Double-A in 1995, Williamson hit .309 with an 853 OPS in 104 games but hit just seven homers and committed 28 errors at the hot corner. That was the high point of his career, however, as injuries combined with more ill-fated defensive work and declining skills at the plate to derail Williamson's career. He appeared in 24 games with the Brewers in 1997, hitting just .204 with a 513 OPS, and was released in Spring Training three years later after toiling ineffectively in limited Triple-A action in 1998 and 1999. Unable to find a job, he surfaced briefly with the Greenville Bluesmen of the Independent Texas-Louisiana League before hanging up the spikes for good.
"Bando made him a sentimental pick, because both of them were third basemen at Arizona State," teammate Brian Banks told Peter Barrouquere of the Times-Picayune about Williamson. "Antone could hit. He wasn't all that bad a fielder, except he couldn't catch pop flies or ground balls."
And in the final analysis, he couldn't hit all that much, either.
===================================================================================
Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
===================================================================================
1994 Helena R+ 6 26 2 0 2 4 .423 .464 .577 1041
Stockton A+ 23 85 4 3 7 19 .224 .271 .376 647
El Paso AA 14 48 3 1 7 8 .250 .339 .375 714
1995 El Paso AA 104 392 30 7 47 57 .309 .383 .469 853
1996 New Orleans AAA 55 199 10 5 19 40 .261 .326 .397 723
1997 Tucson AAA 83 304 20 5 49 41 .286 .389 .434 824
Milwaukee MLB 24 54 3 0 4 8 .204 .254 .259 513
1998 Louisville AAA 29 103 8 2 13 19 .204 .291 .359 650
1999 Huntsville AA 12 38 3 0 7 6 .342 .457 .421 878
Louisville AAA 68 184 7 5 30 29 .239 .349 .359 707
===================================================================================
Williamson played poorly in his only big league stint, posting a negative VORP and WARP3 while committing a pair of errors at first base.
===========================================
Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
===========================================
1997 MIL 1B 60 -.351 -5.0 -0.5
===========================================
GEOFF JENKINS - 1996 (#25), 1997 (#78), 1998 (#95)
The Brewers' first round pick in 1995 out of USC, Jenkins followed a similar "fast track" to Williamson and jetted through three levels in his first professional season. He split the 1996 campaign between Stockton and El Paso and hit well despite stroking just four homers in 59 games. His first stint at Triple-A (with Tuscon in 1997) found him overmatched but he rebounded to post an 893 OPS in 55 games with Louisville a year later and earned a call-up to Milwaukee. He was in the Brewers' lineup for good by 1999 and has been there ever since. Plagued by injuries, Jenkins was named to the All-Star Team in 2003 and has a career .279/.344/.507 line with 149 homers in 807 games.
===================================================================================
Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
===================================================================================
1995 Helena R+ 7 28 0 0 3 11 .321 .375 .393 788
Stockton A+ 13 47 2 3 10 12 .255 .373 .489 862
El Paso AA 21 79 4 1 8 23 .278 .341 .418 759
1996 Stockton A+ 37 138 8 3 20 32 .348 .433 .529 962
El Paso AA 22 77 5 1 12 21 .286 .391 .494 885
1997 Tucson AAA 93 347 24 10 33 87 .236 .308 .409 717
1998 Louisville AAA 55 215 10 7 14 39 .330 .381 .512 893
Milwaukee MLB 84 262 12 9 20 61 .229 .288 .385 673
1999 Milwaukee MLB 135 447 43 21 35 87 .313 .371 .564 935
2000 Milwaukee MLB 135 512 36 34 33 135 .303 .360 .588 948
2001 Milwaukee MLB 105 397 21 20 36 120 .264 .334 .474 808
Beloit A 1 3 1 0 1 1 .333 .500 .667 1167
2002 Milwaukee MLB 67 243 17 10 22 60 .243 .320 .444 764
2003 Milwaukee MLB 124 487 30 28 58 120 .296 .375 .538 913
Huntsville AA 6 20 0 2 1 7 .250 .286 .550 836
2004 Milwaukee MLB 157 617 36 27 46 152 .264 .325 .473 798
===================================================================================
A solid defensive left-fielder, Jenkins has accumulated 32.3 WARP3 in his seven seasons including 7.6 in 2000, his career year to date.
===========================================
Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
===========================================
1998 MIL LF 285 -.044 -2.9 0.3
1999 MIL LF 493 .419 46.5 6.9
2000 MIL LF 564 .414 53.9 7.6
2001 MIL LF 446 .164 17.4 4.5
2002 MIL LF 272 .107 7.0 2.4
2003 MIL LF 554 .331 42.6 6.0
2004 MIL LF 681 .164 26.1 4.4
===========================================
VALERIO DE LOS SANTOS - 1997 (#52), 1998 (#89)
One of the only successful products of the Brewers' woeful Latin American scouting operation, de los Santos signed as an amateur free agent in 1993 and spent the next two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He made his stateside debut in 1995 with Milwaukee's Arizona League affiliate and earned All-Star honors the following year in Beloit. A tall left-hander with a good fastball and biting slider, de los Santos spent all of 1997 at Double-A El Paso before converting to a reliever and advancing from there to the Triple-A to the big leagues as a 25-year old in 1998, posting a 2.90 ERA in 13 games with the Brewers. He missed much of the 1999 season with back surgery and was ineffective in 2000, going 2-2 with an ERA twelve percent below the league average in a career-high 73 and two-thirds innings. The injury bug bit again after only one appearance in 2001; this time, de los Santos missed the rest of the season with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery.
Visa problems delayed his return in 2002 but he began the year at Indianapolis and earned a promotion to Milwaukee on May 17th. He appeared in 51 games and posted his best ERA since his rookie season, a solid 3.12, and allowed just 42 hits in 57 and two-thirds innings. He regressed the following season but still posted an ERA six percent above his league's average before the Brewers dealt him to Philadelphia in September. De los Santos finished the year with the Phillies and signed as a free agent with Toronto for 2004 but missed most of the season with an injured shoulder.
==================================================================
Year Team Level G/GS IP H BB SO ERA
==================================================================
1995 AZL Brewers R 14/12 82.0 81 12 57 2.20
1996 Beloit A 33/23 164.2 164 59 137 3.55
1997 El Paso AA 26/16 114.1 146 38 61 5.75
1998 El Paso AA 42/4 66.2 82 25 62 3.91
Louisville AAA 5/0 5.0 4 0 0 3.60
Milwaukee MLB 13/0 21.2 11 2 18 2.90
1999 Milwaukee MLB 7/0 8.1 12 7 5 6.48
2000 Milwaukee MLB 66/2 73.2 72 33 70 5.13
2001 Milwaukee MLB 1/0 1.0 1 1 1 9.00
2002 Milwaukee MLB 51/0 57.2 42 26 38 3.12
Indianapolis AAA 1/0 1.0 1 1 1 0.00
2003 Milwaukee MLB 45/0 48.0 39 22 35 4.12
Philadelphia MLB 6/0 4.0 7 3 4 9.00
2004 Toronto MLB 17/0 11.2 11 10 10 6.17
==================================================================
Oft-injured, de los Santos has topped two WARP3 only once in his career and has totaled just 5.6 over 260 innings. Still only 32, his career 4.38 ERA is one percent below the league average.
=========================================
Year Team IP RA+ VORP WARP3
=========================================
1998 MIL 21.2 162 6.5 0.6
1999 MIL 8.1 77 -0.2 0.1
2000 MIL 73.2 93 8.9 1.4
2001 MIL 1.0 53 -0.4 0.0
2002 MIL 57.2 133 13.4 2.1
2003 MIL 48.0 105 5.9 1.8
PHI 4.0 74 -4.5 -0.5
2004 TOR 11.2 85 0.1 0.1
=========================================
CHAD GREEN - 1997 (#99)
Along with Williamson, Green was one of the biggest first round busts of Sal Bando's tenure as the club's GM. A switch-hitting center-fielder from the University of Kentucky, he was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 1996 draft and proved unable to adapt to wood bats and advanced pitching. One of (if not) the fastest players available, Green was drafted more for his quickness on the bases than for his ability to hit. An good defender, he swiped 37 bases in 53 tries with Stockton in 1997 but posted just a 666 OPS. A flurry of leg injuries including a stress fracture and a number of strained hamstrings kept him out of the lineup for significant chunks of the 1998 and 1999 seasons and Green failed to eclipse the 650 mark in OPS at either Double- or Triple-A in 2000.
The Brewers decided to cut ties with him in December and sent him to San Diego along with Santiago Perez for right-handers Brandon Kolb and Will Cunnane. Kolb appeared in ten games for the Brewers in 2001 and surrendered 16 runs, 14 earned, in just nine and two-thirds innings while Cunnane pitched slightly less poorly, posting a 5.40 ERA in 31 games; both became free agents after the season. Green lasted just 63 games before the Padres released him and he finished the season with Cleveland's Double-A affiliate. He signed with the Twins and split 2002 between the Eastern and Pacific Coast Leagues and spent all of 2003 with Triple-A Rochester, posting a .252/.294/.395 line in 106 games.
===================================================================================
Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
===================================================================================
1996 Ogden R+ 21 81 4 3 15 23 .358 .458* .543 1002
1997 Stockton A+ 127 513 26 2 37 138 .250 .300* .366 666
1998 Stockton A+ 40 151 13 0 12 22 .344 .393* .457 850
El Paso AA 7 6 0 0 1 3 .000 .143* .000 143
1999 Huntsville AA 116 422 22 10 46 109 .246 .321* .384 704
2000 Huntsville AA 85 317 22 3 29 85 .233 .297 .344 641
Indianapolis AAA 43 123 8 3 10 36 .203 .267 .374 641
2001 Mobile AA 42 137 8 1 11 42 .226 .282 .350 632
Portland AAA 21 67 4 2 9 28 .224 .316 .403 719
Akron AA 37 127 8 3 11 28 .260 .317 .425 742
2002 New Britain AA 20 76 3 3 5 11 .329 .366 .539 905
Edmonton AAA 75 220 11 7 13 61 .218 .261 .373 633
2003 Rochester AAA 106 397 24 9 22 85 .252 .294 .395 689
===================================================================================
Green is one of two Brewers (along with Tyrone Hill) on Baseball America's rankings never to make the Show.
===========================================
Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
===========================================
---------- NO MAJOR LEAGUE RECORD ---------
===========================================
RONNIE BELLIARD - 1999 (#49)
An eighth round pick by the Brewers in 1994, Belliard advanced quickly through the system, earned Texas League All-Star honors in 1996 while with El Paso, and spent a full season at Triple-A in 1997 at age-22. He repeated the level in 1998 and hit .321 with a 408 on-base average and 911 OPS and earned All-Star honors from both the International League and Baseball America and a call-up to Milwaukee. He opened the 1999 campaign at Louisville but quickly earned a promotion and stuck with the big league club for the rest of the year, hitting .295 with an 808 OPS in 124 games while playing primarily at second-base. He earned the starting nod in 2000 and batted .263 with a 743 OPS, notching 30 doubles and eight homers in 571 at-bats, but spent the next two seasons fighting for playing time and often sulking on the bench. He hit .264 in 2001 and just .211 in 2002 and the Brewers non-tendered him after the season.
After rebounding in 2003 with the Rockies, Belliard broke out last season with Cleveland and hit .282/.348/.426, earned a spot on the American League All-Star team, and finished second in the league with 48 doubles.
===================================================================================
Year Team Level G AB 2B HR BB SO AVG OBA SLG OPS
===================================================================================
1994 GCL Brewers R 39 143 7 0 14 25 .294 .385 .366 741
1995 Beloit A 130 461 28 13 36 67 .297 .356 .464 820
1996 El Paso AA 109 416 20 3 60 51 .279 .373 .387 760
1997 Tucson AAA 118 443 35 4 61 69 .282 .379 .406 775
1998 Louisville AAA 133 507 36 14 69 77 .321 .408 .503 911
Milwaukee MLB 8 5 0 0 0 0 .200 .200 .200 400
1999 Louisville AAA 29 108 4 1 14 13 .241 .331 .306 637
Milwaukee MLB 124 457 29 8 64 59 .295 .379 .429 808
2000 Milwaukee MLB 152 571 30 8 82 84 .263 .354 .389 743
2001 Milwaukee MLB 101 364 30 11 35 65 .264 .335 .453 788
2002 Milwaukee MLB 104 289 13 3 18 46 .211 .257 .287 544
2003 Colorado MLB 116 447 31 8 49 71 .277 .351 .409 760
CO Springs AAA 6 19 1 0 0 1 .263 .263 .316 579
2004 Cleveland MLB 152 599 48 12 60 98 .282 .348 .426 774
===================================================================================
With the exception of his 2002 debacle, Belliard has been consistently solid-or-better during his six-plus seasons in the big leagues. A slightly below average defender, he has posted three seasons with four or more WARP3 and has accumulated 20.5 WARP3 in his career.
===========================================
Year Team Pos PA VORPr VORP WARP3
===========================================
1998 MIL PH 4 -.305 -0.4 -0.1
1999 MIL 2B 531 .249 29.7 5.4
2000 MIL 2B 667 .171 26.3 3.6
2001 MIL 2B 410 .239 23.2 4.7
2002 MIL 2B 317 -.153 -11.6 -0.7
2003 COL 2B 505 .182 21.3 1.9
2004 CLE 2B 663 .248 37.2 5.7
===========================================
HIGHEST CAREER VALUE
Greg Vaughn easily tops the list of highest career WARP3 with 58.9, more than 20 wins better than Cal Eldred. Geoff Jenkins will catch Eldred easily if he stays healthy and has an outside chance of besting Vaughn if he enjoys a long career. In total, seven of the thirteen players on one or more of Baseball America's lists has accumulated at least ten WARP3 while an eighth (Valerio de los Santos) still has a shot to join that group. The remaining five either didn't make the big leagues (Chad Green and Tyrone Hill) or managed only a cup of coffee (Narciso Elvira, Antone Williamson, and Duane Singleton).
| Player |
WARP3 |
| Greg Vaughn |
58.9 |
| Cal Eldred |
36.1 |
| Geoff Jenkins |
32.3 |
| Dave Nilsson |
23.8 |
| Ronnie Belliard |
20.5 |
| Jeff D'Amico |
16.3 |
| Angel Miranda |
10.6 |
| Valerio de los Santos |
5.6 |
| Narciso Elvira |
0.0 |
| Antone Williamson |
-0.5 |
| Duane Singleton |
-1.0 |
| Chad Green |
-- |
| Tyrone Hill |
-- |
The group has together racked up 202.6 WARP3, an average of 15.6 per player. The total is weighted heavily toward position players; Vaughn, Jenkins, Nilsson, Belliard, Williamson, and Singleton combined for 134 WARP3 while Eldred, D'Amico, Miranda, de los Santos, and Elvira notched 68.6 for the pitchers.
HIGHEST PEAK VALUE
As was mentioned in the first half of this retrospective, Baseball America bases their rankings in large part on a player's projected peak value. The following table lists each Brewers' representative with at least three big league seasons along with their highest single season WARP3 total and their highest total over three consecutive seasons.
| Player |
Single Season |
Three Seasons |
| Greg Vaughn |
9.7 (1998) |
21.7 (1998-2000) |
| Cal Eldred |
8.7 (1993) |
20.5 (1992-1994) |
| Geoff Jenkins |
7.6 (2000) |
19.0 (1999-2001) |
| Ronnie Belliard |
5.7 (2004) |
13.7 (1999-2001) |
| Dave Nilsson |
5.3 (1996) |
11.8 (1995-1997) |
| Jeff D'Amico |
6.8 (2000) |
8.6 (2000-2002) |
| Angel Miranda |
3.6 (1993) |
7.0 (1993-1995) |
| Valerio de los Santos |
2.1 (2002) |
3.9 (2001-2003) |
Vaughn and Eldred once again top the list with three-year peaks of 21.7 and 20.5 WARP3, respectively. Jenkins, Belliard, and Nilsson also reached double-digits while D'Amico, Miranda, and de los Santos barely enjoyed peaks at all.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
Baseball America hit the mark with Vaughn, Eldred, and Jenkins and to a lesser degree with Belliard and Nilsson. The former three players enjoyed All-Star caliber peaks of the kind that winning ballclubs require while the latter two developed into consistently solid performers and each earned an All-Star nod of their own. D'Amico flourished in 2000 but has otherwise been a disappointment; like Miranda and de los Santos, he has become only a modestly valuable big leaguer and not the impact player of Baseball America's projections.
Even that trio has contributed in the Major Leagues, however, something that can't be said for the remaining five players on BA's lists. Two hurlers, Elvira and Hill, flamed out after being ranking in the top 25 (and in Hill's case, top ten) while Singleton, Williamson, and Green never developed into big league hitters.
Of the thirteen players ranked in the Top 100 during the 1990s, only three (or 23 percent) achieved the peak value described by Baseball America's rationale and only five (or 38.4 percent) became productive big leaguers. Eight of the thirteen at least enjoyed meaningful careers in the Majors, a batting average of .615.
With eleven players ranked on BA's lists from 2000-2005 still with the organization, the Brewers have nearly equalled their total from the entire decade of the 1990s in half the number of years. Ben Sheets has already become one of the premiere pitchers in baseball and hitters like Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and J.J. Hardy appear primed for long and productive big league careers. If the Brewers are to turn things around and finally bring their playoff drought to an end, they will need this latest group of Baseball America-rated prospects to turn out more like Vaughn and Eldred than Hill and Green.
So far, things are looking good.
NOTES AND REFERENCES
Compiling the statistical data for this article proved difficult and would not have been possible without The Baseball Cube, Waymore Sports, Baseball-Reference.com, MinorLeagueBaseball.com, and the help of Patrick Ebert, Jim Shemanski, and Jamie Siegel. Special thanks are also extended to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, without whom this article would not have been possible.
Bill Batterman is a writer for Brewerfan.net. You can get in touch with him by sending email to batman@brewerfan.net.
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