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The first half of the team’s 2006 season was completed on Friday night when the Brewers dropped a game below .500 after an 8-2 defeat at the hands of the Twins. At 40-41, Milwaukee is four-and-a-half games behind the Cardinals and Reds, who surprisingly share the top spot in both the National League Central and Wild Card standings. Despite spending the vast majority of the season without ace Ben Sheets and number four starter Tomo Ohka, the Brewers are right in the middle of the playoff race and two games above their 2005 pace when a loss to the Pirates on July 3rd dropped them to 38-43. While the 81-game mark is an arbitrary delimiter, it nonetheless provides a convenient opportunity to evaluate the team’s performance. Who have been the most productive Brewers? Who has earned first-half honors and dishonors? While this article is by no means comprehensive, it provides a cursory answer to each of those questions as the Brewers prepare to make the turn back toward the 2006 clubhouse.
STATISTICAL LEADERS:
It’s easy to follow the team’s top players in mainstream statistics like home runs, RBI, or wins. But what about some of the more advanced metrics? Who has topped the charts among Brewers during the first half? The following lists the team’s top five producers in several of the more advanced statistics calculated during the season.
On-Base Plus Slugging Average (OPS)
The most mainstream of the non-mainstream stats, OPS is a quick-and-dirty measurement of a player’s offensive contributions. The average National League player’s OPS is 755.
- Carlos Lee - 925
- Bill Hall - 890
- Prince Fielder - 863
- Gabe Gross - 853
- Corey Koskie - 848
Runs Created per 27 outs (RC/27)
A basic formula invented by Bill James, RC/27 estimates the number of runs a team would score if the player in question received all of its plate appearances. In other words, how many runs would a team made up of nine Carlos Lees score? Albert Pujols leads all of baseball with 10.55 RC/27 while Travis Hafner paces the junior circuit with 10.25; they are the only two players in double-digits.
- Carlos Lee - 6.89
- Jeff Cirillo - 6.74
- Prince Fielder - 6.44
- Bill Hall - 6.12
- Gabe Gross - 6.04
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
A Baseball Prospectus stat, VORP measures “the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.” Defense is not included in batters’ VORPs and hitting is not included in that of pitchers.
- Chris Capuano - 35.1
- Carlos Lee - 25.9
- Bill Hall - 20.7
- Rickie Weeks - 17.2
- Prince Fielder - 16.6
Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP3)
Another Baseball Prospectus metric, WARP3 calculates the number of wins a player contributes including his hitting, fielding, and pitching compared with what a replacement player at his position would have provided. Geoff Jenkins led the 2005 club with 8.1 WARP3.
- Chris Capuano - 8.1
- Corey Koskie - 7.0
- Derrick Turnbow - 5.9
- Bill Hall - 5.3
- Carlos Lee - 4.8
Win Probability Added (WPA)
Made available by FanGraphs.com, WPA is the ultimate “what have you actually done for me?” statistic. By comparing a team’s likelihood of winning before and after every event that occurs during a game, one can precisely measure the actual contributions of each player on his team’s bottom line winning percentage. While the predictive value of WPA is dubious at best, it is useful for measuring how important a player’s hits or errors or strikeouts were in the context in which they were accumulated. A solo home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a tie game is more important than a two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a 12-0 game, for example, and WPA can help differentiate between those events in a way that other stats cannot.
- Carlos Lee - 193.0
- Chris Capuano - 185.3
- Gabe Gross - 135.7
- Bill Hall - 124.1
- Prince Fielder - 99.7
MID-SEASON AWARDS:
What would a mid-season analysis be without a few awards? Boring, probably, and a lot less controversial. With that in mind, the Daily Brew presents the following awards (some positive and some not so much) to deserving candidates from the team’s first half.
The Robin Yount Award For Offensive Excellence: Carlos Lee
El Caballo is well on his way to earning a massive contract thanks to his top drawer performance in the season’s first three months. His .283/.346/.579 line with 15 doubles and 26 home runs will undoubtedly have a salubrious effect on his wallet, with the only remaining question being whether the check will be written by Mark Attanasio or some other club’s owner. Primed to smash his previous career high of 32 taters set last season, the 30-year old Panamanian exploded out of the gates with ten homers during April and has continued to drive balls out of the park at a prolific rate, averaging one per 12.2 at-bats. Perhaps most impressively, Lee has cut his strikeout total from 6.71 at-bats per punchout in his career to just one ever 9.21 at-bats in 2006 while simultaneously improving his walk rate, from a career 12.65 at-bats per walk to a 2006 total of one every 9.5 times at-bat. Despite his sometimes confounding play in left-field, El Caballo has been the team’s overwhelming everyday MVP thus far in 2006.
The Get Well Soon Big Ben Award For Outstanding Starting Pitching: Chris Capuano
Duh. The most obvious of all the awards handed out, the nod for the team’s best starting pitcher is a one-horse race with Capuano lapping the field. Proud owner of 16 quality starts in 17 tries, the 27-year old southpaw ranks fourth in the National League in innings, fifth in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP, and eighth in ERA. With a team-high nine wins, Cappy has a chance to match last season’s breakout win total of 18. A fan favorite who is learning to speak Japanese so that he can communicate with Tomo Ohka, the Massachussetts-native has dramatically cut down on his walk and home run rates while striking-out nearly a batter an inning. Opposing batters are managing just a .249/.291/.380 line against him and those few who do reach base might as well be anchored to first; thanks to his otherworldly pickoff move, Cappy has allowed a grand total of zero stolen bases in just two attempts.
The Rollie Fingers Award For Superior Relief Work: Derrick Turnbow
He’s been far from perfect, but Milwaukee’s 100-miles-per-hour rock star has converted 23 of 27 save opportunities in only his second season as the team’s closer. Despite an inconsistent slurve that is alternately unhittable and uncontrollable, Turnbow has struck-out 45 batters in 35 and two-thirds innings, a career-high ratio of 11.36 per nine. He ranks ninth in the NL in Baseball Prospectus’s Win Expectation Above Replacement statistic, a comprehensive measure of reliever effectiveness, and has doubled up his next closest bullpen mate in the situation-dependent metric Win Probability Added. Opposing batters have hit just .211/.301/.352 against him with left-handers even less successful, posting a 609 OPS versus 702 from right-handers.
The Chad Moeller Award For Offensive Futility: Chad Moeller
The Brewers’ much-maligned backup backstop, Moeller has proven entirely inept with a bat in his hands since being acquired in the Richie Sexson trade from Arizona. In only 98 at-bats this season, Moeller has managed to erase almost the entirety of Damian Miller’s positive offensive contributions; Miller has a 7.0 VORP in 224 at-bats while Moeller has been 6.4 runs below replacement level in less than half the opportunities. The 31-year old’s 538 OPS and .181 Equivalent Average are his worst since his rookie season in 2000 with the Twins and his batting, on-base, and slugging averages are all his lowest as a Brewer. The only player that stands between Moeller and the season-ending edition of this award is Mike Rivera, who may very well take his job.
The David Manning Award For Incompetent Moundwork: Ben Hendrickson
A dominating Triple-A hurler who has proven utterly incapable of making the transition to the big leagues, Hendrickson flailed his way through four games before mercifully being shipped back to Nashville with a 12.00 ERA and more walks (nine) than strikeouts (8). In eleven starts for the Sounds, the 25-year old has gone 6-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 59-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio, surrendering just one home run compared to six served up in Milwaukee. Featuring a good-enough fastball and a wicked spike curve, Hendrickson is sure to get more opportunities to earn his mettle in the big leagues; whether that occurs with the Brewers is yet to be determined.
The Derek Jeter Award For Excessive Clutchiness: Bill Hall
No award list is complete without a mention of the Brewers’ jack-of-all-trades. After beginning the season as the team’s third-baseman against left-handers and second-stringer at shortstop, second, and center-field, Hall has become a staple at short with J.J. Hardy on the shelf with an injured ankle. In addition to his overall offensive production (.268/.323/.567 with 20 doubles and 16 homers), the athletic Mississippian has once again demonstrated an uncanny ability to author memorable conclusions to Brewers’ victories. The most impressive of this year’s walk-offs came on Mother’s Day when Hall took Chad Bradford deep in the bottom of the tenth inning with a pink bat and his Mom in attendance, sending the Miller Park faithful into a frenzy and drawing the attention of national broadcasters. Hall also beat the Padres early in June when he walked-off Trevor Hoffman, who up to that point had been perfect in save opportunities in 2006.
“It’s always fun, especially when you get a walk-off, you’ve got your whole team there waiting at the plate to hit you, jump on you, beat you up,” Hall told the Associated Press. “It’s a big lift.”
The Geoff Jenkins Award For Consistent Inconsistency And Fan Irritation: Geoff Jenkins
A lightning rod for criticism, Jenkins has once again gotten off to a terrible start and is hitting just .250/.317/.380 in the team’s first 81 games. With only 17 doubles and seven homers, Jenkins’ slugging average is the lowest of his career and has been consistently declining from .480 in April to .383 in May to .272 in June. If anyone can rebound from the pathetic start, however, it’s Jenkins, who over the last three years has hit .261 with a 795 OPS before the All-Star Break and .314/962 after. In 2005, the longest tenured Brewer finished June with a .245 batting average and 742 OPS but ended the season at .292 and 888; if Milwaukee is going to make a run at the playoffs, Jenkins is going to have to replicate his second half explosion.
About the Author:
Bill Batterman is a writer for brewerfan.net. He welcomes comments and suggestions via email at batman@brewerfan.net.
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