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By now, everyone should know the story. In early June, the Diamondbacks completed a rain-delayed four-game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta to improve to 34-22. One of the most compelling stories in baseball, Arizona was in first place in the competitive National League West and looked like a legitimate playoff contender.
When they returned home to Phoenix, however, the news broke that veteran reliever Jason Grimsley was embroiled in a federal steroid investigation and had admitted to using Human Growth Hormone, an undetectable but illegal performance enhancing drug that has become a household name thanks to allegations surrounding Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and a host of other big leaguers. Grimsley was released on June seventh but the media firestorm that ensued took on a life of its own, engulfing the Diamondbacks’ clubhouse. From June fifth through the end of the month, Arizona went 4-20 to fall four games below five hundred and out of the division lead.
Since the calendar turned to July, however, the Diamondbacks seem to be back on track. Winners of five of their last eight games before the All-Star Break, the Snakes remain in last place in the NL West but are just five games behind the front-running Padres and two-and-a-half back in the hyper-competitive Wild Card race.
On the mound, the Snakes have received an incredible three months from Brandon Webb and a mostly forgettable three months from everyone else. While ne’er-do-wells like Russ Ortiz and Kevin Jarvis forced the team to endure a parade of baserunners, Arizona has been quick to pull the plug on malfunctioning hurlers. Of the 20 pitchers that have climbed the hill in purple and teal, all but Webb have posted Value Over Replacement Pitcher (VORP)s of between +11 and -7. By fielding a stable of reliably replacement-level arms behind Webb, the Diamondbacks have quietly accumulated the eighth-highest VORP among pitching staffs in the National League despite pitching in baseball’s most extreme hitter’s park.
Even the bullpen has been surprisingly effective with Mets-import Jorge Julio filling in nicely for demoted-to-mop-up duties Jose Valverde, who has posted an incredible 45-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 and two-thirds innings but sports an ERA over eight thanks to a .296 opposing batting average. Former-Brewer Luis Vizcaino has also been solid, fanning 43 while walking just 15 in 37 and two-thirds innings while Randy Choate, Casey Daigle, Brandon Medders, and Brandon Lyon have all been at least occasionally reliable options for manager Bob Melvin, who recently had his contract extended.
While the casual observer would see the Diamondbacks’ offense as a strength—they rank sixth in the NL in runs—a closer evaluation reveals that much of their perceived clout is a product of Chase Field. At home, the Arizona offense has combined for a 790 OPS; away from Phoenix, that number declines to just 721, 13th-best among senior circuit clubs. Among the most extreme splits is that belonging to Chad Tracy, whose solid overall line (.277/.332/.454) masks his All-Star-caliber performance at home (.302/.350/.537) and his replacement-level performance on the road (.255/.317/.380).
Even when accounting for the Chase Field effect, however, the Diamondbacks have received strong offensive performances from outfielders Eric Byrnes and Shawn Green and catcher Johnny Estrada. Byrnes is hitting .292 with twelve homers and a team-best 874 OPS, more than 100 points better than his career mark of 761. Green, meanwhile, leads the team’s hitters in Win Probability Added and Estrada ranks sixth in the league in VORP among backstops.
The Brewers will have their work cut out for them against Webb, almost certainly the best pitcher in baseball during the first half. With their top three of Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, and Dave Bush toeing the rubber, however, Milwaukee can legitimately claim the favorable pitching matchup in the other two contests. And with Capuano on the mound opposite Webb, himself eighth in baseball in VORP, even the third pairing isn’t a lopsided one on paper.
Coming off a disappointing series loss against the Cubs to close out the first half, the Brewers will have to ignore the heat and play at the top of their games to get back on track and climb back into the NL Central race.
GAME TIMES & COVERAGE INFO:
Daron Sutton and Bill Schroeder will have the late-night call for FSN North on Friday and Saturday but Sunday’s game will only be available online via MLB.tv.
The table below lists game times and broadcast availability; click on the date to view each game’s Weather.com Game Forecast.
| Game Times / TV Schedule |
| Day |
Date |
Time |
TV |
| Friday |
July 14th |
8:40 PM CDT |
FSN North, MLB.tv |
| Saturday |
July 15th |
8:40 PM CDT |
FSN North, MLB.tv |
| Sunday |
July 16th |
3:40 PM CDT |
MLB.tv |
As always, fans can also tune in to hear Bob Uecker and Jim Powell call the action over the team’s statewide radio network.
COVERAGE OF THE DIAMONDBACKS:
The Dbacks are not well-represented in the digital world as only a handful of oft-updated blogs cover the team. AZ Snakepit, the club’s SportsBlogs Nation entry, and Out in the Desert, a MostValuableNetwork affiliate, are two of the premier players while Random Fandom has ceased publication since the two teams met early in the season. The only active fan forum appears to be Diamondbacks Bullpen, a relatively low-traffic offering that features game threads as well as general Dback discussion. On the professional side, the Arizona Republic follows the team at azcentral.com.
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS:
| Probable Starters |
| Game |
Pitcher |
R/L |
Age |
W-L |
ERA |
RA+ |
OPS |
VORP |
| Game 1 |
Doug Davis |
LHP |
30 |
5-6 |
4.95 |
94 |
764 |
20.6 |
| Miguel Batista |
RHP |
35 |
8-5 |
5.01 |
88 |
827 |
6.3 |
| Game 2 |
Chris Capuano |
LHP |
27 |
10-4 |
3.21 |
145 |
677 |
38.9 |
| Brandon Webb |
RHP |
27 |
9-3 |
2.65 |
175 |
654 |
51.1 |
| Game 3 |
Dave Bush |
RHP |
26 |
5-7 |
4.34 |
107 |
715 |
20.9 |
| Claudio Vargas |
RHP |
28 |
7-5 |
4.91 |
89 |
808 |
5.6 |
THE REST OF THE NL CENTRAL:
The Cardinals have increased their lead to a not-yet-comfortable four games over the Reds while the Brewers and Astros sit at two games below five hundred and six behind St. Louis. The Cubs and Pirates, on the other hand, boast the two worst records in the National League; Pittsburgh is the first team in baseball to reach 60 losses while Chicago has the fewest home wins (14) in the Majors.
| NL Central Standings |
| Team |
W |
L |
PCT |
GB |
ST |
L10 |
RS |
RA |
| St. Louis Cardinals |
49 |
39 |
.557 |
— |
W4 |
6-4 |
443 |
427 |
| Cincinnati Reds |
46 |
44 |
.511 |
4.0 |
W1 |
2-8 |
457 |
470 |
| Milwaukee Brewers |
44 |
46 |
.489 |
6.0 |
L3 |
4-6 |
411 |
485 |
| Houston Astros |
44 |
46 |
.489 |
6.0 |
W1 |
6-4 |
413 |
436 |
| Chicago Cubs |
34 |
55 |
.382 |
15.5 |
L1 |
5-5 |
357 |
454 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
30 |
60 |
.333 |
20.0 |
L2 |
3-7 |
411 |
471 |
LOOKING AHEAD:
It’s not the easiest way to begin baseball’s unofficial second half, but it’s not the hardest, either. After finishing up with the Diamondbacks, the Brewers will travel to San Francisco to take on the Giants (45-44) before jetting back across the country for a three-game series against the second-place Reds (46-44). The team’s reward for playing nine road games in ten days? A three game series against the Pirates and another against the Reds, this time at Miller Park.
About the Author:
Bill Batterman is a writer for brewerfan.net. He welcomes comments and suggestions via email at batman@brewerfan.net.
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