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The Cubs and the Brewers will renew acquaintances in Miller Park over Easter weekend in what promises to be an interesting preview of what we may see as the weather gets over the freezing mark.
The Brewers had a very impressive open to the 2007 season as they took two out of three from the Dodgers, a team that many experts have pegged to win the NL West, at Miller Park.
Milwaukee’s starting pitching, thought to be a strength coming into the season, proved to be stellar in the season’s first three games. Brewers starters went 21 innings, and allowed just six runs, good for a sterling 2.57 ERA. The bullpen, with the notable exception of Carlos Villanueva’s surprising implosion, was terrific as well, and overall the team allowed just nine runs over the three games to the admittedly punchless Dodgers lineup.
While the pitching was expected to be strong, the defense was a question mark heading into the season. If the first three games are indeed a harbinger of things to come, the Crew will surprise a lot of people in this area. Besides making the routine plays (did somebody say turning outs into outs?), web gems by much-maligned Craig Counsell and newly minted CF Bill Hall turned heads as well. As will be the case throughout this article, beware of the incredibly small sample, but three error-free games makes for a nice start.
At the plate, the squad continued their hot hitting from the Cactus League, where they finished tied for 2nd place in the league with a .313 mark. They finished the first series with a .294 batting average, and averaged five runs per game. They averaged 3.3 walks per game, up from 3.1 from last season, and cracked four home runs (by four different players). Led by catcher Johnny Estrada, who went 6-11 in his first three games as a Brewer (hey, he even walked once!) and shortstop JJ Hardy (5-12), the offense is off to a solid start. Cold Brewers include Rickie Weeks (2-11) and Craig Counsell, who despite being only 1-7 has a team-leading 3 RBI. I love small samples!
Meanwhile, the Cubs lost two of three to the Reds in Cincinnati, and look to win the series and head back to Wrigley at the .500 mark to begin the season. The Cubs got a typically below-average opening day start from ace Carlos Zambrano en route to a 5-1 loss, then bounced back with a terrific outing by newly acquired Ted Lilly in a 4-1 victory. They closed the series in Cincy with a classic Cubs collapse, losing 5-2 and allowing the tying and go-ahead runs via a wild pitch and passed ball.
The Cubs starting pitching, ironically besides their ace, was very good, as Lilly and Jason Marquis combined to allow just two runs in 13 innings. The bullpen is another story, as Bob Howry blew the lead yesterday, and Scott Eyre threw gas on the fire by allowing two insurance runs to the Reds.
It was a fairly quiet offensive series for the Cubs, as they hit just one home run in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark. They scored a total of just seven runs in the three games. They were led by Mark DeRosa (5-9 with the only home run) and middle of the lineup stalwart Aramis Ramirez, who went 7 for his first 13. $18 million man Alfonso Soriano went 3-13 with one extra base hit in his first Chicago series. Cold Cubs include Jacque Jones (1-12) and Michael Barrett, who is still looking for his first hit in 2007, having gone 0-11 to start the season.
Game One: LHP Rich Hill (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Dave Bush (0-0, 0.00 ERA).
Both of these pitchers make their 2007 debuts on Friday evening to kick off the series. Bush has had good success against the Cubs in his career despite a 1-2 record. His ERA against Chicago is a stellar 3.03, and in his two losses the Crew scored a total of 5 runs. His last outing against the lovable lovers was a dandy in late September at Wrigley Field, as he tossed eight innings and allowed just one run. Last season, Bush was much better at home, posting 3.53 ERA at home, and a 5.38 mark away from Miller Park. Bush did not have a strong spring for the Brewers, but then again neither did Ben Sheets, and it didn’t seem to adversely affect him in his first outing.
Rich Hill, meanwhile, hasn’t recorded a decision against the Brewers, but has been effective in two outings, allowing just two runs and six hits in 11.1 innings. Hill features a big curveball, and all Brewer diehards know the troubles that soft-tossing lefties have given the Crew over the years. In his brief career, Hill has a large home-road disparity, as within the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, Hill possesses an ERA of 3.79. Get him away from Chicago, and his ERA nearly doubles to 7.46.
Game Two: RHP Ben Sheets (1-0, 1.00 ERA) vs. RHP Carlos Zambrano (0-1, 9.00 ERA)
What a fantastic matchup in the season’s fifth game. Sheets is coming off one of the premier starts of his career, as he allowed just two base runners in a complete-game, two-hitter on Opening Day, as the Crew dispatched the Dodgers 7-1. Finally 100% healthy after two injury-riddled seasons, Sheets is the undisputed ace of the staff and one of the top pitchers in baseball when on top of his game. He struck out only three Dodgers and coaxed 16 fly balls, both considered uncharacteristic for Sheets. However, he stayed right in character with a performance that included no walks. In his career against the Cubs, Sheets is 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. He did not throw against Chicago in 2006.
Zambrano typically struggles in his first outing of the season, and Monday was no different as he walked five and allowed five runs in five innings. His career ERA of 4.23 in April is almost a run higher than his career mark of 4.32. The Brewers have had pretty good success against Big Z, as he has gone just 7-7 with a 4.20 ERA in his career, including a 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA at Miller Park. Last season, the Brewers racked him around, as Zambrano went 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA against him. As always, a patient approach is best when facing Zambrano, and he walked 14 Brewers in just 22 innings last season.
Game Three: LHP Chris Capuano (0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. RHP Wade Miller (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
The series finale features two guys that have had pretty good success against the opposition throughout their careers. Capuano got his 2007 off to a bit of a shaky start, as he followed his slow spring with a 5-inning, 3 run performance against LA. Despite clearly not having his best stuff, Cappy was able to keep the Crew in the game, and Kevin Mench’s two-run home put Milwaukee ahead for good in the 6th. Historically, Capuano has been terrific against the Cubs, going 7-2 with a 3.75 ERA in his career. The 7 wins represent almost 20% of his career win total of 37. The numbers from last season are even more eye-catching, as Cappy went 3-0 with an amazing 26 scoreless innings against the Cubs in 2006. He pitched two shutouts, and went eight scoreless frames in the other game, truly incredible numbers. He walked only two batters while striking out 16 in those outings.
Wade Miller, meanwhile, makes his first start of the season on Sunday. In his career against Milwaukee, he is an amazing 11-1 with a 2.55 ERA against the Brewers, including an even more staggering 6-0, 1.08 mark at Miller Park. However, his last action against Milwaukee came in 2004, when Gary Bennett was the starting catcher, and Ben Grieve was in right field. He is on the comeback trail, and hasn’t gone more than 5 innings in a start since August of 2005.
It’s hard to put a lot of emphasis on a three-game series three games into the season, but these two teams might well battle to the end for the NL Central crown, particularly if that opening series by St. Louis was a measure of things to come. The two teams meet 15 times this season, and the outcome of those games could go a long way in determining who wins the division, or who is in better shape to vie for a wild card spot. If one team or the other sweeps, we might well look back on this series as an early turning point in the 2007 season.
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