Farm Hops All-Star edition,

Player of the Month (The LaGamel” award): Eric Fryer

Eric has dominated WV this year that comes as a total surprise to everyone. Last season, in Helena, Fryer struggled, hitting .209 with a .612 OPS. So far in 2008, Fryer’s got a .960 OPS with a .352 batting average. In June, Eric batted .363 with a .988 OPS. Eric’s a catcher by trade, but the Brewers have been playing him in the outfield quite a bit this year as well. Initially, it appeared that Eric was just playing the outfield because Lucroy was the starting cater, however as the season has progressed it has become clear that the Brewers want to stress Eric’s versatility. Eric is a likely call up to A+ BC ASAP due to his pure domination and his age. Fryer’s gone from no one at all to the hottest player in the system in just a couple months and he has a solid chance of repeating as player of the month for July.

Pitcher of the Month: Evan Anundsen

It’s funny---the Power started off the year as the most disappointing of the Brewers farm teams. Yet somehow over the past 4 weeks, they’ve become the best. So far in the second half, the Power are 18-7, giving them a 3 game lead. Evan Anundsen has been a huge part in their rise to dominance. In June, Evan won 4 games with a 2.01 ERA with 30 k’s in 31 innings against just 7 walks. Evan does a fantastic job of keeping the ball on the ground, which allows him to dominate even with an 87-88 MPH fastball. Of course, it’s possible I caught Evan on an off night, so don’t be surprised if he gets that fastball up to 90 or so later on. The Brewers took Evan in the 4th round last year, so they expect good things from him, though he’ll likely spend the whole season at WV.

The Trade:

Well, losing Matt LaPorta is a huge deal. Gaining Sabathia is nice and I hope the Brewers can make the playoffs, but I’m pretty torn about this trade. The general consensus is that LaPorta was possibly playing over his head and that his swing is too long. Sure, he’s not quite the #1 prospect in he game, but I’m concerned about letting him go for a few reasons.

First of all, his power will play in the majors, and likely next year. The Brewers are currently over loaded with power hitters, but the next crop of prospects doesn’t really contain a slugger. Mat Gamel shows flashes slugger-esque power, but he’s not likely to hit more than 30 a year in the bigs. Even if LaPorta hits .260 in the majors, he’s still going to hit close to 40 homers a year. With Gamel, it’s a little harder to project because there’s such a low chance that he’ll get to the majors and hit .360+. LaPorta was easy to project and that’s comforting when you are talking about a big time prospect. Also in Matt with two t’s favor was the fact that he settled in nicely in the outfield. Matt will probably never play an inning in the outfield for the Indians, but he was on his way to being an average corner outfielder. Gamel still scares me to death because I really belief the Brewers are going to let him play 3b in the majors. With LaPorta, at least we knew they weren’t going to try anything crazy…with Gamel, who knows. Anyway, those are minor complaints coming from someone who thinks LaPorta was the best prospect in the system.

As for the other guys, I think this trade was a great one…so far. Zach Jackson could turn into a serviceable major leaguer, which would be pretty cool. ZJ is like Dana Eveland---I’d love to see him succeed, even if it’s not in a Brewers uniform. As for Rob Bryson, I’d rather not trade guys with huge fastballs and k numbers, but he was in low A, so he’s not a sizeable loss.

The hinge of this trade is obviously the PTBNL, but I’ll leave comments on him for the roundtable.

Roundtable:

1. Who do you think is the most intriguing pick from the first 5 rounds of this year’s draft?

Patrick: For me it's Evan Fredrickson, just because his ceiling is so high yet he is clearly a work in progress. Given his size, stuff and the fact that he's left-handed, it's hard not to be excited about what he can do down the road. He's also the first college pitcher that Jack Zduriencik has taken in the top two rounds during his tenure with the Brewers, and while many people have hoped he would do so prior to this year's draft, Fredrickson's polish and rough profile at this point in time is really no different than raw prep fire-ballers such as Mike Jones, Mark Rogers and Jeremy Jeffress.

Toby: If Brett Lawrie had been signed by now, it would be hard not to go with him, but since he isn't, I'll go with fourth rounder Josh Romanski. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but he's left-handed, throws hard enough, and has good control. There were a number of kudos for the pick after the draft from people in the know and I think he could turn into a Steve Hammond-type prospect fairly quickly, and in the end he'll be even better than Hammond. He was sidetracked to the DH role upon signing because Helena was short on position players - while his future is on the mound, it's always a plus to know he has the bat to acquit himself decently at the plate.

Brad: For me, it’s got to be Odorizzi. It was extremely hard to give up Will Inman, funky deliver and confusing fastball and all, so I see Jake as his spiritual successor. Really, I could lump Seth Lintz in this same category. Jack Z. has had some hard luck with High School righties like Jones and Rogers, but it’s really hard to ignore the potential here. Logan Schafer intrigues me as well because he’s a well-rounded California college player and because the Brewers have aggressively advanced him.

Jim: Interesting topic, as Jake Odorizzi, Cutter Dykstra, Josh Romanski and Evan Frederickson are among the top five picks with interesting backgrounds and potential. For me, though, it's all about first-rounder Brett Lawrie. Any 18-year-old who plans on being in the big leagues a year and a half after being drafted gets my attention, although I'm not sure if it's for naiveté or spunk. The wood bat results and high-end profile in international competition for a prospect that may help on the big league level at any number of positions should have the most intriguing career path.

2. Obviously, the offense is there---but what will be done with Gamel, Brantley, and Salome?

Jim: Mat Gamel's bat is too potent to waste at AAA for too much of 2009, but the fact his bat is big-league ready also cuts into any further defensive development time at the minor league level. Mat's left-handed bat in a lefty-dry upper system further solidifies his sooner-rather-than-later arrival in Milwaukee. Maybe Bill Hall shows enough the rest of the way that the Brewers can find a taker this off-season. That would take care of 2009, and moving Prince the following off-season opens up first base in 2010 should it be evident that Gamel's not a long-term option at third. As for Brantley and Salome, they'll be in some combination of AA and AAA again next year. No need to project now, as there is so much that can happen prior to 2010.

Patrick: Gamel will hit enough that the team will find a place for him. I know some think he could evolve into an average third baseman, but I think he's going to end up on an outfielder corner. While everyone is in love with Brantley's on-base skills, his overall lack of power still concerns me, although there's nothing wrong with a fourth outfielder that can play all three outfield spots while providing good speed and on-base skills off of the bench. Salome is probably the most perplexing, since it seems as though he really needs to stick behind the plate to make it to, and remain at the big-league level.

Brad: I think Gamel’s going to be the starting third baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers sometime around May 25th 2009. I hope and pray he can keep his fielding percentage above .900 and turn into a decent 3b. I think his long-term future is probably at another position, but I would be surprised if the Brewers don’t ignore all the signals and stats and keep him at 3b. Salome will either be a catcher or he won’t be a starter in the bigs. Sure, he hits well but he doesn’t walk very much. He’s such a unique player that it’s very hard to imagine him anywhere other than catcher. Personally, I expect he’ll be traded, but it’s just a hunch. As for Mike Brantley, he’s the player that confuses me the most. He may project as a centerfielder, but unlike the other two guys mentioned here, he rarely plays the position. Mike’s not the kind of hitter that could survive at a corner, so he really needs to find a foothold in center. Beyond that, he needs to turn the power he displayed in June into a consistent part of his game, or he’ll become the 4th outfielder that Patrick and baseball America are both concerned he’ll be in the bigs.

Toby:The Brewers will find a place for Gamel at the major league level because he can hit. You can prognosticate which position he'll play in Milwaukee until you're blue in the face: Will he have the glove to stick at third base? Will the Brewers trade Fielder for pitching and shift Mat to first? Will Hart move into center and move Gamel into right? Can Mat Gamel pitch? I don't own a crystal ball, and I don't think anyone will have a very clear idea until next spring at the very earliest and likely much later. Brantley's future depends on his ability to hit for enough power to keep pitchers honest at the big league level, as well as his prowess in center field. If he can show he's not Tony Gwynn Jr. 2.0 at the plate and not Bill Hall 2.0 in center field, he could be our starter in center and lead-off guy within the next year and a half. He has a way to go to prove he can do either over the long haul, but there's a chance. He might also be traded. Salome has a lot of competition at the catcher spot in the system with the emergence of Jonathan Lucroy and the drafting of Brett Lawrie, not to mention the presence of Eric Fryer and Shawn Zarraga. He's still at the top of the heap, though, and if he shows he can carry the load defensively, he's still the Brewers' catcher of the future. Due to the excess of catching in the system, Angel might be used as trade bait.

3. What have been your midpoint pitching surprises and disappointments?

Toby: There haven't been that many unexpected, eye-popping pitching performances in the minors this year. Steve Hammond has had a nice turnaround after a disappointing '07 and Amaury Rivas has thrust himself onto the prospect scene after missing most of last year due to Tommy John surgery. Brae Wright and Dave Welch have solidified their status as back end of the rotation/long relief prospects and upped their value accordingly. Alex Periard is on the brink of top tier prospectdom, but that won't come for another year. And Santo Manzanillo isn't walking three batter per inning anymore. But again, nothing that makes you do a double take. On the flip side, Josh Butler has not been as advertised from the Rays, Nick Tyson wasn't able to make the step up to A-ball this year and Zach Braddock hasn't exactly set the world on fire. I was hoping Mark Rogers would be healthy, although that hope was admittedly quite guarded. But no drug suspensions or new major arm injuries to big-time prospects, so I don't have too much to complain about.

Patrick: Tim Dillard is the biggest surprise, especially when he was called up and dialed up his fastball to the mid-90s. In past years we heard reports that he was more of an 88-91 guy with good sink, so that velocity spike is very encouraging. Mike Ramlow's success wasn't entirely unexpected, but it has been a pleasant surprise. A pitcher that has a similar profile, Mike McClendon, hasn't been as impressive this season. He hasn't been horrible, but I thought he would do much better in the Florida State League. The same goes for most of the starting rotation at West Virginia, as I'm sure I'm not the only one that expected more from R.J. Seidel, Roque Mercedes, Dan Merklinger and Jose Garcia.

Jim: I had high hopes for the few pitchers who have really stood out this season, so I can't classify Evan Anundsen or Alex Periard's work as surprising. Sam Narron deserves a mention for being able to translate his AA success to AAA, even if it is at age 27. Although his numbers are well below the lofty expectations his brief 2007 West Virginia stint generated, I can't throw Zach Braddock in the disappointing category because he's making all his starts. I really had Steve Bray pegged as a second-half contributor as of spring training, so he probably heads that list.

Brad: I was very surprised by Omar Aguilar’s early season success, and equally disappointed by his recent lack of success. I’ve been very impressed with Mike Ramlow all year. I got to see him throw a few times in 2007 and he just looked like roster filler, but he’s acquitted himself very well so far in 2008. Nick Tyson has been a huge disappointment for me this year as I expected him to be a top 5 pitching prospect by the end of the year. Finally, I’ve been very pleased with the re-emergence of Steve Hammond---I always thought very highly of him before last year, an I’m glad to see him pitching back at a high level.

4. Lucroy, Salome, or Lawrie?

Brad: It’s got to be Lucroy at the moment simply because I’m convince he’ll make it to the bigs as a catcher and because he’s dominating BC. Salome has a ton of potential, but I have my worries. I’m as excited as anyone to watch Lawrie play in the future, but the lingering doubts about his ability to play catcher and his absence from the farm system makes it hard to pick him now.

Toby: I alluded to this earlier, but as long as Salome makes the necessary improvements on defense, it's his show. He will hit. Lucroy has a nice bat, but he's not a world beater defensively either. I have a hard time comparing Lawrie to either of those two because he's never donned the tools of ignorance in a Brewers uniform. Who knows, it could be that none of those guys stick behind the plate and Eric Fryer is our catcher in ten years. Catching prospects are just too unpredictable to make solid guesses on. Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie all have starting potential behind the dish for sure - I'll be happy if just one of them pans out for the Brewers, and it doesn't matter to me which one.

Jim: Sorry, but I can't throw Lawrie into the equation for that discussion right now, considering the gap in age and level. I'll probably be a contrarian, but I would love to see Angel Salome develop his catching skills to the point that he could be the everyday catcher in 2010. His bat isn't just plus, it's been plus-plus, and at every level. What's not to like about Jonathan Lucroy? But in baseball terms, Lucroy's the safe girl-next-door and Salome is the temptress that could satisfy your every desire or crush and stomp on your spirit. I've always played it safe, in baseball and in life - I'm going to dance with the temptress for once.

Patrick: Lucroy. He may not have the offensive upside as Salome or Lawrie, but I think he has the best chance of sticking behind the plate the longest. If you're just talking about the bats, I'll take Lawrie, who may hit well enough to play anywhere on the diamond.

5. Which prospects would you package to make one last trade before the deadline?

Patrick: If the right deal came along, I would deal anyone outside of Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar. Jonathan Lucroy would probably be third on my "don't touch" list just because of the success he is having coupled with the position he plays and the likelihood of staying there.

Jim: Wording your question that way, you're kind of asking us to say who is untouchable. I don't think the Brewers are looking at acquiring such a high-end major leaguer that it would require giving up a top-level prospect, if only because of salary limitations. So I'm not sure it's necessary to list Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, etc., because it likely won't be an issue. That said, forced to pick a name, if Lorenzo Cain brought a valuable set-up man, even if it was a two-month rental, I'd pull that trigger.

Brad: I think one of the catchers could be moved. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all to see another one of the A ball pitchers like Braddock or Anundsen sent off for a lefty bat.

Toby:The Brewers have their best depth top end depth at catcher and the outfield. Assuming we got a big piece to the 2008 puzzle in return, I wouldn't have a problem trading either Salome or Lucroy, and one of Cole Gillespie, Lorenzo Cain or Brantley. If the Brewers don't think Luis Pena or Tim Dillard could help this year, either or both of them could be sent elsewhere also, though that might be a bit foolhardy with the struggles of Gagné and Mota. On the other end of the spectrum, you'd have to pry Gamel, Escobar, or Jeffress out of my cold, dead hands.

6. If you were Mark Shapiro, would it be Brantley or Green?

Jim: Tough call, as Cleveland is going to end up with a future big-league contributor either way. If this were still back in April, I'd go with Brantley, because Green would still have had just the one "where did that come from?" year at low-A. Cleveland has been trying to solve third base for a while now (Andy Marte, anyone?), but how valuable is a potential .360-.400 OBP leadoff man these days? Twist my arm, and I'd grab Green, but I promise you that's a gut-wrenching choice, and it's no wonder the Indians have asked for more time to assess both players.

Brad: I’m tempted to suggest that Mike Brantley looks like a very young Grady Sizemore from the Montreal days, but that sets the bar way to high. Just from looking at the players from the scouting perspective rather than the Internet geek stats side, Brantley has more room to grow as a player. I think the Indians will take Brantley, but that might be wishful thinking because I don’t want to lose Green, or god forbid, Lucroy.

Patrick: Green, because his upside is higher as a left-handed hitting infielder with both power and patience.

Toby: If I were Mark Shapiro, I would see Green's ability to play second and third base as trumping Brantley's questionable ability to play center field. Green also has proven he has more power than Brantley, and equal walk drawing ability to Brantley. It would be a no-brainier for me. That said, I sure hope Shapiro's radar doesn't land on either one (or Jonathan Lucroy).