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Brewerfan.net Feature Articles http://www.brewerfan.net Brewerfan.net Feature Articles 1 daily Milwaukee Brewers 2008 Preaseason Predictions http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=280 It's time for Brewerfan.net to take a stab at naming the players that will make the biggest impact during the 2008 season while tackling a few of the key issues the team will need to overcome. Player of the Year Ryan Braun The position switch will make a world of difference to Braun's overall value compared to last year, and he'll have a full season to work with. He may not be able to fully replicate the success that he had last season, but he'll likely remain a force to be reckoned with for years to come. If by chance he's able to develop more patience at the plate, he could become one of the truly elite hitters in the league. - Ethan Riepl This is a tough choice due to multiple candidates (which is ultimately a good thing). I believe that Ryan Braun will do his part to eradicate the phrase "sophomore slump." - Laura Hawing Ryan Braun will embrace the cleanup role, and clean up he will -- as in an RBI title and MVP votes. He will prove to be a more than capable left fielder. To think he posted his 2007 numbers in only 113 games... - Jim Goulart Prince Fielder The Brewers have an embarrassment of potential riches at the plate again this season. The guys I didn't even consider for this award - J.J. Hardy, Bill Hall, Jason Kendall and Mike Cameron - all have the ability to be solid contributors to the lineup and in the field in their own ways. If Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart or Ryan Braun ended up being the everyday hero for the team this year, it would not surprise me in the least. Prince Fielder, however, is not only a middle of the lineup stalwart but is also the team's young leader. To beat a metaphor to death, Prince truly can carry the team on his broad shoulders. And I believe he will in 2008. - Toby Harrmann I remember looking at Arod's first big season over a decade ago and wondered to myself how he could get any better. He's done just that, and then some, and I think Fielder is going to do the same, and while he may not reach 50 home runs again, he's going to be a much more well-rounded slugger boosting his averages and counting stats across the board. - Patrick Ebert Corey Hart If you discount Prince for his defense and move Braun down to a measly 1.000 OPS against lefties, then it isn't so clear that those two are way beyond Corey Hart. I think Corey's going to have a Dale Murphy MVP style season. .300 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 runs, 100 RBI, and 30 stolen bases -- not a terribly hard prediction because Corey has been healthy and consistent his whole career. Of course, his ceiling is not as high as Braun or Fielder's, but it's pretty high and Corey will be playing at it this year at the plate. On top of the stick, Hart is an above average defender who might well turn out to be the starting CF next year. With all that said, I think Corey's the guy in 2008. - Brad Jiles Rickie Weeks The nice thing here is that this is a difficult decision. There are several players to argue for. Last season, I picked Rickie Weeks. Weeks had a pretty poor season, which included a trip to the minor leagues. Weeks did however have a successful run at the end of 2007 giving us a glimpse of what is to come. With his wrist a non-issue, his mental blocks gone and who is behind him in the lineup, Weeks is going to have a monster season. Weeks is going to get on base a lot, and he is going to score a ton of runs. - Jamie Siegel Pitcher of the Year Yovani Gallardo Gallardo may get a late start to the season, but that's ok. He's going to be good. Real good. Yo will provide dependability and give the club a solid chance to win each time he takes the mound. Luckily, the leg injury in spring was pretty minor. He's got great mental character and poise beyond his years. - Jamie Siegel OK, so how many "Yovani's" have ever appeared in a big league uniform? If you guessed one, as in "Brewers' number one pitcher in 2008", you'd be correct. Brewer fans really need to step back and realize where we are in Brewer history right now -- and realize that we are not just talking special kids on this club, but in Prince, Ryan, and Yo in particular (Corey's not far behind), that we're talking extraordinary history-making kids on this club. Oh, and Ben's going to have a fine season as well, but Miller Park fans will have the extra buzz when Yo's on the mound in '08. - Jim Goulart Despite the slight injury setback, Gallardo should progress from last year and it'll be fun to see what he can do over an entire season in the rotation. Given the chance of Sheets underperforming, Gallardo may have the responsibility of leading this rotation to the postseason, and consistently good outings will be his main asset. - Ethan Riepl Ben Sheets Injuries be darned -- if it's game 7, I want Sheets on the mound. Just because I want to, I'll predict Big Ben throws 200 innings this year and strikes out 200 guys. Even with all the hype about Yo and Parra, Ben's still got the best stuff on the team and I think we'll see him flash it this year. Sadly, there's very little reason to believe that he's with the team next year, and a crappy first half record could mean we see him dealt in July. - Brad Jiles With all due respect to the other members of the pitching staff, the question is: Ben Sheets or Yovani Gallardo? Answering the question requires a bit of a projection of the Brewers' 2008 destiny. Should the Brewers falter and finish with a similar or worse record than last year, I have a pretty good idea of who their pitcher of the year won't be - it won't be Ben Sheets. Without rehashing Sheets' injury history, it is simply a fact that the Brewers have lost more than a few extra games since his injury spells began in 2005. If the Brewers have an off year in 2008, it's more than likely due in part to another Sheets injury. That's why he's my pick for Pitcher of the Year. If the Brewers do succeed this year, I cannot see them doing it without a healthy Ben Sheets. Yovani Gallardo is an excellent young pitcher, but I just don't feel he yet means as much to the staff as Ben Sheets does. A healthy year for Sheets will likely mean a healthy record for Milwaukee. - Toby Harrmann Carlos Villanueva Again, how novel it is to have trouble making this choice because there are several realistic candidates. With no offense intended toward the others, I'll tab Carlos Villanueva, as I suspect he will be back in the jack-of-all-pitching-trades role that earned him my 2007 Voigt Memorial Award. - Laura Hawing All spring there were a lot of people concerned that Villanueva might not even start the 2008 season with the big-league club given the much talked about starting pitching depth and the fact that Villanueva still had minor league options. Fortunately that concern is a distant memory, and Villanueva may not have the eye-popping stuff, but his approach, command and consistency will give him a much better opportunity to record a win each and every time he takes the mound than his fellow pitching mates. - Patrick Ebert Rookie of the Year Manny Parra Whether Manny is with the 2008 Brewers out of the gate or moves up mid-season, I think he will shine. - Laura Hawing We'll see Parra a bit earlier than I had imagined, which has me a bit nervous for his overall health and stamina. Parra will not be a guy the opposition can "get healthy" on. Quite the opposite. Parra is going to be known to fans around the league very shortly. - Jamie Siegel This vote is going to be unanimous in Parra's favor since he is the only rookie candidate that stands to receive a significant amount of playing time. It will be interesting to see what the club does to limit his time on the mound, but some of the best teams in baseball have that reliable swing-man that can be used in a variety of roles, and when Gallardo returns Parra could be used in that fashion. - Patrick Ebert The answer here almost has to be Manny Parra. He's the only true rookie on the opening day roster and barring injury or a real breakout year by one of the AAA prospects (Escobar, Pena, Jackson or Iribarren for instance), he'll be the only rookie to see extensive playing time for the Brewers this season. I don't need to go into what Parra brings to the table, I just wish him health. For kicks, here's my dark horse candidate: Chris Narveson. - Toby Harrmann This is a tough one. It seems like it should be Parra, but he's just barely still a rookie. But who else would it really be? So, rather than say something wacky like Vinny Rottino, I'll go with Manny. Let's all pray he throws 180 top-notch innings this year. - Brad Jiles Manny Parra, not by default, but because it's a one-man race. Don't be surprised if Manny makes as many as 12-15 starts in Nashville, though. - Jim Goulart Considering that Parra is really the only option, he gets it by default. But that doesn't mean that won't earn and deserve it, despite the absence of competition. - Ethan Riepl Jack Voigt Memorial Award - Unsung Hero Joe Dillon Isn't Jack Voigt still alive? Thrillin' Joe Dillon gets the vote -- every Little Leaguer out there should watch this guy at the plate. Dillon pinch-hit appearances are like those nominated Academy Award shorts -- successful productions high in quality. It's line drive heaven. - Jim Goulart Gabe Gross With Cameron missing the first month, I think Gabe will get a chance to shine. Of course, he'll probably sit behind Gabe Kapler or unexpectedly be released after the second game of the season, but I think he'll contribute quite a bit this year. He's really a superb fourth outfielder and I think too many overestimate the quality of fourth outfielders out there. - Brad Jiles Tony Gwynn Jr. Gwynn will help the ball club this season on both sides of the ball. He will obviously get more time right away in the beginning of the season, but will also be a solid bench player. Gwynn will be called upon for his bat this season and we should see a pretty good increase in his OBP. - Jamie Siegel Jason Kendall I'll take the hunch that Kendall will handle the pitching staff more effectively - enough to make a difference. - Laura Hawing Ted Simmons Simmons' contributions to this team will be largely invisible to the casual observer, but his shrewd baseball mind and influence on Yost's managing will likely produce good results. - Ethan Riepl Salomon Torres The bullpen still worries me some, but I really liked the acquisition of Torres, and I think his presence will provide some much-needed glue to hold the ?pen together. - Patrick Ebert The Fans So many players from last year are returning and most of the new guys will have prominent roles with the club. Everyone knows who Joe Dillon is and it's hard for a late innings reliever or a staring position player to be an unsung hero. Because I'm a sap at heart, my Captain Jack Voigts of 2008 are going to be: Each of the fans that will help the Brewers set a club season attendance record of 3 million-plus seats sold this upcoming year. Without the fan base, the Brewers' payroll would not be able to be where it is today. I know the team appreciates the fans, but heck? it's time for the fans to appreciate the fans a little bit, too. - Toby Harrmann Impact Callup Luis Pena I'll go with Luis Pena. I'm just not sure about the bullpen as it currently stands. - Laura Hawing I mentioned earlier that there are not too many places for minor leaguers to fit on this roster right now. I am not going to get into the injury projection game trying to answer this either. The most likely spot I see as a need that could be filled from the system as the year goes on is a spot or two in the bullpen. That is why I am going to say that Luismar Pena will be the Brewers' impact callup of 2008. Pena will start the year as Nashville's closer and has a blazing fastball-slider combination that should be major league ready very soon. - Toby Harrmann I dream of a K-Rod situation with the Angels in 2002 where Pena is called up when the rosters expand and provides a dynamic and nearly unhittable presence in the late innings, helping to propel the Brewers to the playoffs. - Patrick Ebert Russell Branyan I guess Gallardo's April activation won't count, so I'll say that Russell "the Muscle" Branyan will have an impact in at least two games in September as a late-season call-up, and as we know, two games can be the difference. (I'm hoping Branyan doesn't have a mid-season opt-out if not on the 25-man roster). - Jim Goulart Matt LaPorta Why Not? Say LaPorta dominates AA for the first two months?do we leave him down and let him marinate a little longer? How about bringing up LaPorta to be the DH on May 16th against Boston and then again versus the Twinkies in June. After that, send him back to AAA until August 31st when he comes up for good so that he can get ready to DH during the World Series. - Brad Jiles Manny Parra After Gallardo comes back, Parra will likely get bounced around a bit as a result, but it seems pretty likely that he'll see a fair amount of playing time with the Brewers by year's end. Whatever opportunity he does get, expect him to enjoy some level of success. - Ethan Riepl Vinny Rottino Rottino is my pick here. Milwaukee is weak with catching prospects and if he can manage average defense behind the dish, his bat will do the rest. - Jamie Siegel Minor League Impact Player Matt LaPorta LaPorta had made a mark already last season. He proved too much for Helena and then proceeded to destroy opposing pitchers while playing for West Virginia. This is a name for you to get to know. LaPorta is going to turn more than just a few heads. - Jamie Siegel It's only a matter of time until LaPorta is a regular starter in the majors, and he'll likely bide that time by pummeling minor league pitchers. - Ethan Riepl It's difficult to imagine this not being LaPorta. - Laura Hawing Alcides Escobar After witnessing just a bit of Alcides Escobar's work with the Brewers in spring training, it would be difficult to say the young Venezuelan shortstop isn't poised to break out and thrust himself squarely into the middle of prospect radar. He won't hit as much as a guy like Matt LaPorta or Mat Gamel this year. His defensive prowess will, however, keep piquing the interest of the defensively suspect Brewers. With a good year at the plate that includes progress in the plate discipline department, Escobar could begin to force the Brewers' hand in the majors as soon as 2009. - Toby Harrmann Mat Gamel All Gamel has done is put up big offensive numbers since joining the organization, and put an exclamation mark on his professional career so far by being named the MVP of the Hawaiian Winter Baseball league. That production will continue, and improve, this year at AA Huntsville. - Patrick Ebert Cole Gillespie Cole's second half in Brevard last year was very nice and he has the ability to turn into a player kind of like Corey Hart. I think Cole will hit .290 in Huntsville with 15-20 homers, making him a very nice outfield prospect in a system with no need whatsoever for more outfielders. - Brad Jiles Jeremy Jeffress If we're defining this as "impact" in terms of impact on the entire minor league system, then the vote has to be for Jeremy Jeffress. Upon his return in mid-late May, he'll again determine if his draft selection has Brewer fans on a high (bad pun intended) or a low. There's likely to be little middle ground. Jeremy, we're definitely rooting for you in a big, big way. Good luck, young man. - Jim Goulart Minor League Sleeper Mike Bell Bell is a toolsy second base prospect that played last year with class high-A Brevard County. A 15th round draft pick in 2005, Bell was moved off of shortstop prior to last season in order to maximize his defensive potential. Bell is still developing his eye at the plate, but what's obvious is that he has a powerful bat for his position. He drove the ball very well in a pitching-dominant league and his power numbers should improve as he moves to Huntsville and then Nashville in the coming years. - Toby Harrmann Eric Farris Amidst more notable performers and 2007 draft picks, Farris had a very good professional debut for Helena last summer, and I see his skills translating very well to low-A West Virginia where he'll be poised to have a big year. - Patrick Ebert Daren Ford This kid has wheels and can cover a lot of ground in centerfield. Ford started out well last season but then took a tumble. If he can keep himself straightened out by lowering his strikeouts, he will create havoc on the base paths. Ford will shine amongst the stars of the minors. - Jamie Siegel Derek Miller I'm on record elsewhere as talking up LHP Derek Miller, who, at age 26, may not have the highest of ceilings, but will be positioning himself to be in the starting rotation discussion for 2009/2010. His college career was sidetracked by Tommy John surgery, but he's definitely on the radar of front office staff. - Jim Goulart Shawn Zarraga Humungous power from a catcher is rare. Zarraga wanted a lot more than he eventually got, so he slipped to the Brewers in the 44th round. They gave him a pretty nice chunk of cash on the hope that the power he showed in high school carries over. It may be a couple years before we see him out of rookie ball, but he has the potential to be something special. - Brad Jiles Five Burning Questions #1: Do you feel satisfied with the moves Doug Melvin made this offseason, and in particular, did he do enough to improve both the bullpen and the team defense? Doug Melvin improved the bullpen pretty well. If Gagne is not the answer as closer, there are some fine options available. The defense however has me concerned. Repairing centerfield issues could have been done without relying on a player who is going to miss the first 25 games of the season. Cameron should adjust rather quickly but it's still a 25 game hole to fill. Bill Hall does not have me concerned at all, I think he'll be a big improvement at third base. Ryan Braun will have to adapt to a new position moving from infield to outfield. He is going to replace a pretty good defensive player in Geoff Jenkins which will add even more pressure to Braun's transition. I'm leery about Kendall's inability to throw out runners, as I would have liked to have seen a guy who can stop steals brought in. - Jamie Siegel Yes and No. I thought Cameron was a great signing that helps the team a ton. I also liked what he did with the pen---Riske was a great signing, and one of Torres or Mota should be good this year. Even Gagne wasn't a bad risk on the off chance that he regains a big chunk of his value. I'm not really a fan of Jason Kendall. He could be better than Estrada, but really he's not very good. However, there wasn't a lot of better options at catcher, so I can hope Kendall improves the catching situation. - Brad Jiles The mustachioed one had a very successful offseason in my eyes. You have to have faith that Salomon Torres will bounce back, and at the cost of Marino Salas and Kevin Roberts? Thank you very much, Pittsburgh. The Mike Cameron signing was special in that the front office took a wider view of the club, and didn't allow themselves to get hung up on little things such as his right-handedness. I'm a big fan of the Jason Kendall signing based on the good things you hear about his handling of a staff. You could quibble in that who else was bidding for Eric Gagne -- wouldn't he have signed for $6-7 million instead of $10M given his imagined options? And I was sure Corey Hart was going to be the recipient of a multi-year deal -- if you can't get Corey and his three kids locked in long-term, what does that say for the other young studs? - Jim Goulart One would be hard-pressed to argue that the team has not improved in these areas overall. There may be some question marks in the bullpen with guys who have had notable success in their careers, albeit not recently; but even if none of them provide glimpses of their former glory, the utter lack of Spurlings and Mabeuses in the bullpen is heartening to say the least. As far as defense goes, getting a gold-glover in centerfield is nice, but the best thing that could have happened to this team was moving Braun. - Ethan Riepl I am satisfied, given the outside factors with which Doug must work. For example, I think the Brewers will miss having Francisco Cordero on their staff, but will not wish they had the contract he demanded on their books. Doug does a commendable job of balancing the Brewers' needs with financial reality. He's put together a largish bullpen, but one which lacks the "wheel of relievers" vibe that caused us so much grief in 2006. As for team defense, I can't help but think it's a good sign when Bill Hall and Ryan Braun both specify they're happier in their 2008 positions. (I know, like either one is likely to come out and say he hates it; but they could have just said nothing.) I don't feel so much like we have square pegs in round holes anymore, and I consider that good news. - Laura Hawing Bullpen success is often a mystical, magical thing that no one can predict before it happens, and if they try to predict it, the success won't be there. Did Melvin make a sure-fire, dominant bullpen that will strike fear even into the hearts of the Tigers or the Mets? Nope. Did he make a decent stab at cobbling together some guys in hopes of increasing production? I think so. The team defense was improved dramatically the moment the decision was made to sign Mike Cameron and move Ryan Braun off of third base. Jason Kendall also improves the defense behind the plate. The Brewers still have big problems defensively with Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder, and I get the impression the team defense is still somewhat below average. They are better, though, and that will count for something. - Toby Harrmann I really liked the defensive realignment set off by the signing of Mike Cameron, as Melvin seemed to be admitting a mistake by not making a similar move a year ago when he could have kept Bill Hall in the infield at third base and moved Braun to the outfield while still in AAA. Defense should also be improved behind the plate, and who knows how many intangible qualities Jason Kendall will bring to the team that Johnny Estrada just didn't have any desire to possess. I like the creativity used to improve the bullpen, as Melvin seemed to take the approach of collecting as many quality arms as possible and hoping that a few of them stick, or in this case, bounce back. I'm not as confident in the Gagne acquisition, but if he received a big vote of confidence from Ted Simmons (the former scout), that's good enough for me, at least for now. - Patrick Ebert #2: Will Ned Yost be with the Brewers by the end of the year and beyond? Doug Melvin and Mark Attanasio seem to be locked in with Ned Yost for better or worse. Ted Simmons will go a long way to making Yost look like an improved manager this season. If the Brewers tank due to something other than a mountain of injuries, it is always a possibility that Yost will be jettisoned. Save for that, he keeps his job. - Toby Harrmann End of the 2008 season: Yes, unless the Brewers underachieve to a stunning degree, or a Yost-centered personal scandal erupts. Beyond: Ned's best chance at remaining beyond the 2008 season is a 2008 playoff berth. Perhaps more significantly, having Ted Simmons nearby gives me hope both for Ned's tenure and a post-Yost era. - Laura Hawing I may not agree with a lot of his moves, but I don't see Ned going anywhere anytime soon. I think the team will have to have a colossal drop-off for this to happen, and I don't think that will occur. - Patrick Ebert I believe that if the Brewers do not make the playoffs this season Ned Yost will lose his job. The team is in a "win now" mode and this situation will include management as well as players. The handwriting on the wall showed up when Ted Simmons was brought on board. If the team hits the playoffs in 2008, his job should be safe for 2009, but only a serious run at the World Series would secure Ned's job for 2010 and beyond. - Jamie Siegel The only way Ned is gone at the end of the year is if the team spectacularly underperforms, without the influence of major injuries. And with the amount of raw talent on this team, the chances of this happening are probably pretty slim. The organization seems to be satisfied with the job that he's doing, so as long as this core group of players is around, it's difficult to foresee anything that would make them want to show him the door. - Ethan Riepl End of year, yes. Beyond, let's see. 2009 probably hinges on a playoff spot, unless the Brewers somehow find themselves on the outside looking in despite a 90-win season. - Jim Goulart Without a doubt. I know Ned takes a lot of heat on the web, but he's a pretty standard MLB manager. He doesn't overdo anything...he's much more like his mentor Bobby Cox than many want to let on. I suspect he'll be around for a few more years, unless the Brewers lose 100 games this year. - Brad Jiles #3: Who needs to step up the most for the Brewers to enjoy success in 2008? It's probably cliche by this point, but it's gotta be Ben Sheets. After getting a taste of his full potential in 2004, everyone has been waiting patiently to see such sustained success from him again. Of all the other starters on the roster, the pitchers with the most upside have the least experience and those with the most experience are somewhat middling in terms of ability. Sheets is the lynchpin and his performance will likely be the difference between a great and mediocre rotation. - Ethan Riepl Some may say Ted Simmons, in order to properly guide Ned. I'll make an obvious choice and say Ben Sheets, he doesn't necessarily need to step up, but he needs to step on (the mound, that is, about 32 times). - Jim Goulart Ben Sheets is the easy answer. Since I have already discussed him, I'll take a guy that plays defense behind him: Rickie Weeks. Weeks' ups and downs and injuries have been well documented since his arrival in Milwaukee. It would be nice to see him just be consistent at the top of the lineup. If Weeks can keep his on-base percentage around or above .360, steal some bases, keep driving the ball some and improve his defense even just a little bit, the Brewers are in good shape at the top of the order. - Toby Harrmann Rickie Weeks. Weeks needs to stay in the majors and hit over .250 this year. Truthfully, Rickie's been a pretty good big leaguer, but this team still needs another big bat to become a perennial playoff contender. Rickie has the most untapped potential on the team and he's the most likely break-out candidate. If he had matched his second half numbers last year in the first half, the team would have won two to three more games and been in the playoffs. - Brad Jiles I said Rickie Weeks a year ago, and I'm sticking by that nomination since Rickie showed what he could do at the top of the batting order over the final month-plus of the season. I suspect his batting average will start to creep up as well once he gets further and further away from his recent injury concerns, and he still has the tools to become one of, if not the most feared leadoff threats in the game. With Weeks on base more frequently, the thunder in the middle of the lineup will be given more opportunities to do their thing. - Patrick Ebert I'm splitting my vote because I believe two players are particularly important to the 2008 Brewers. Among position players: Rickie Weeks. To me, he continues to feel like the "missing piece" among the young, high-ceiling Brewers. The wrist injury should not be holding him back anymore, and his September 2007 performance was extremely tantalizing. Among pitchers: Ben Sheets. As Ben goes, so go the Brewers. It appears to be that simple. - Laura Hawing Ben Sheets is pretty much the pat answer here. We always say it needs to be him, and I believe it holds true for this year too. You would surely hope that he can give us 200 innings and around 15+ wins, because if that happens, it means he also helped lighten the load on the middle relievers, an area of meltdown in 2007. This is most likely Ben's final season as a Brewer and his last chance to prove that he is the ace type guy that has been claimed for his entire career. - Jamie Siegel #4: What area on the team as it stands right now gives you the most concern? Pitching, overall. Both the starting rotation and the bullpen have plenty of question marks (in addition to some strong or very promising points). To some extent every roster selection is a roll of the dice, but this spring, pitching feels especially iffy to me. - Laura Hawing At this point I'm concerned with the starting pitching. I'm not as convinced the Brewers have as much depth as some would suggest. I don't know that they can take another big injury like Cappy's, and relying on all the youth they are putting out on the mound concerns me. - Jamie Siegel Catcher. Kendall and Rivera? Ugh?Catcher is weak across the board, but the Brewers could easily produce a sub-.650 OPS from catcher this year. The pen is a concern and I'm worried that the entire pitching staff is a bit of a risk, but I'm pretty sure our catchers are going to suck, so that's what I'm most concerned about. - Brad Jiles The team defense. As I stated earlier, it's improved, but it's still not really that great. The right side of the infield is arguably the worst in baseball on defense and the left side of the infield isn't more than average? certainly not good enough to offset the deficiencies of Weeks and Fielder. The outfield has the potential to be among the better groups in the game but Braun hasn't played an official major league game in left field yet and Corey Hart is still learning too. The defense may make or break this team. - Toby Harrmann Even with the massive amount of depth present before Capuano and Vargas were lost, the starting rotation was still the most hazy area on this team. And over the years, it's been difficult to be excited and confident about the starting pitching for this team. - Ethan Riepl As exciting as the offense could be, it's always the pitching that is going to carry a team to the postseason and beyond. Ben Sheets deserves some of the scrutiny he has received for not being able to stay healthy, Jeff Suppan may be nothing more than an innings eater, Chris Capuano is already lost for the season (even if he wasn't the same pitcher a year ago) Manny Parra has a past clouded with shoulder problems, Yovani Gallardo is going to start the season on the disabled list and Dave Bush just hasn't been very consistent during his career. If all of the pieces come together the staff could be potentially very good, but there's a lot of potential for frustration as well. - Patrick Ebert Closer, closer, closer. Remember, I live in Red Sox country. I saw the "Gag-Me" era first-hand. It was even worse than you've read. If Eric fails early and often, he's $10 million of dead money, because he's not helping you in a lesser role. - Jim Goulart #5: Which teams from the National League will make the playoffs, and how will the NL Central stack up when the 2008 season is in the books? East: Phillies. Central: Brewers. West: Colorado. Wildcard: D-Backs. - Jim Goulart I think the teams from the East and West beat up on each other so much that the Wildcard comes from the Central, somewhat dismissing the notion that it's the weakest team in all of baseball. The Brewers will indeed take top honors in the Central with the Mets in the East and the D-Backs in the West and the Cubs winning the Wildcard. The Reds, Astros, Cardinals and Pirates will follow the Brewers and Cubs in that order. - Patrick Ebert I'll be a little bit of a homer and say the Brewers will make the playoffs, as the Wildcard. They have as good a shot as most teams. Chicago will win the division, I'm afraid. Cincinnati has a promising team that will be thrown under the bus by Dusty Baker - they have enough talent despite Baker to finish third. After that, it's a miasma of despair. St. Louis, Houston and Pittsburgh are all pretty horrible in different ways. It doesn't matter how they finish in the division because none of them will want to remember it. - Toby Harrmann The NL East is the powerhouse. I believe the Mets take that one, and the Phillies will take the Wild Card. Milwaukee will take the NL Central because the Cubs are overrated in a weak division, and the tough to win NL West will be represented by Arizona. - Jamie Siegel East: Phillies. Central: Cubs. West: Arizona. Wildcard: Brewers. - Brad Jiles East: Mets. Central: Brewers. West: Diamondbacks. Wildcard: Cubs. Aside from the Cubs and Brewers, this division will probably end up being the red-headed stepchild of the National League. Fortunately for both, they will have more opportunities to beat up on the weaker teams, and will flourish in the wins column as a result. - Ethan Riepl East = Mets. West = D-backs. Central = Brewers and Cubs. In that order. I don't see the NL Central losing its rep as a weak division this year. - Laura Hawing Annual bonus question: Who will be number one on the Power 50 at the end of the season? Matt LaPorta - Jamie Siegel, Laura Hawing, Brad Jiles, Patrick Ebert Alcides Escobar Sorry Matt LaPorta, there's solid star-in-the-making, and then there's dynamic-presence-that-you-can't-ignore; still three months away from his 22nd birthday next September, Alcides Escobar will have convinced any doubters. - Jim Goulart Alcides Escobar's stock is rising faster than Matt LaPorta's, that's for sure. It'll be very close between the two. I'll go with Alcides Escobar on spec. - Toby Harrmann Please visit the <a href="http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/">Fan Forum</a> to discuss this story in greater detail. Fri, 28 Mar 2008 00:00:00 EDT Projecting the Brewers and the Cubs http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=279 Recently, a member of Brewerfan.net projected 16 Brewers players. My idea was to see how well fans could predict future performance compared to widely used systems lke PECOTA and Zips. This can be done at the end of the season with regression analysis, but that's a long way off. In the mean time, our Brewers have a division to battle out with the Chicago Cubs. The main reason for projections is to provide a look at how well you can expect players and teams to perform. So I thought it'd be interesting to see what our predicted numbers think. But to get a grasp of where we stand in the division I asked Cubs fans over at <a href="http://www.northsidebaseball.com/">nsbb.com</a> to project 16 players south of us. A baseline projection for both teams was needed. For this I combined two different systems - Chone and Zips, for an average between the two. Zips came out pessimistic and Chone optimistic, so using both should provide a more accurate view. More importantly, though, it allows me to call them "Chips." The first order of business was playing time. I originally used Chone's PA and IP numbers, but couldn't believe how inaccurate they were. So I adjusted them for both teams to a more realistic situation. Secondly, I had to adjust so that both teams had the exact same number of PA and IP. By the time I was done adjusting the playing time was barely recognizable form the originals and they were too subjective to my opinion. So I fixed that by applying a set number of PA to starters and bench, and a set number of IP for starters and bullpen. This strategy has its flaws, but since it's a comparison between the two teams, it won't matter. The numbers were 675 PA for the 8 position players, 300 PA to all bench, 200 IP to starters and 65 to bullpen. The projections then needed to be converted into runs. I used Tangotiger's formula of Runs Above Average = 1.7*OBP+SLE-1*.25*PA for offense. Once I got a RAA for the entire team, I added that to the average number of runs scored per team in the NL last year, 763. Pitching was easier, as I just divided IP by 9 and multiplied by ERA, and then added all those runs up. But unearned runs aren't included in ERA. Last year, the average NL team gave up 45 unearned runs. The Cubs gave up 40, and the Brewers 68. I added the same # of runs for the Cubs, but regressed the Brewers number by 15 runs due to defensive changes. For both teams I used the most likely 25 man roster, using 12 pitcher and 13 positions. It should be noted that the total IP and PA totals are exactly at the league averages from last year, 1453 IP and 6167 PA. Below are the projections for all the players. Ok, done with the boring process. Here's the results: <table> <tr><td> </td><td>Fans</td><td>Chips</td><td>Fans</td><td>Chips</td></tr> <tr><td>Cubs</td><td>824 RS</td><td>827 RS</td><td>702 RA</td><td>710 RA</td></tr> <tr><td>Brewers</td><td>852 RS</td><td>815 RS</td><td>710 RA</td><td>743 RA</td></tr> </table> Wow. Cubs projections are right in line with the fans. Brewers... not so much. Chips projects us at 88 wins, while we have them at 95 wins. Cubs are at 93 wins from both the fans and Chips. Why the discrepancy? I think it's pretty obvious. The fans are high on the Brewers pitching because our defense is drastically improved from last season, perhaps by 40+ runs. Do the projection systems know that? No. That's why I'd expect our RA to be closer to 710 than 743. Secondly, all of our star offensive performers were regressed considerably from their 2007 performance, while the Cubs impact players had a relatively down year and are projected for improvement. Overall, projections are a fun tool to play around with in the off season. They're enjoyable to look at, think about, and they provide good fodder for baseball discussion in the long months of winter. And although most systems see the division going to the Cubs, the Brew is almost a unanimous decision to make the playoffs through the wildcard. But here's the best news: baseball is right around the corner. And it there's one thing we can be sure of, it's this: We're in for an exciting year of baseball in Milwaukee. Sun, 23 Mar 2008 00:00:00 EDT Behind the Microphone -- Helena's Steve Wendt http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=278 Brewerfan wraps up its discussions with the five Milwaukee affiliate announcers in this installment, chatting with Helena Brewers Director of Broadcasting / Media Relations Steve Wendt. Steve's 2007 season was his fourth with the H-Crew, and he shares some great insights with us here. While Steve's Rookie League season may be shorter than the others, it is no less exciting. Steve acts as our eyes when he introduces Brewer fans to the fresh-faced new draftees each June. Steve also benefits from the mountain time game starts, as Brewerfan's Link Reports exhort diehards to flip to his calls after big league Brewer games. If you missed the earlier entries of this series, you can catch up with Nashville's Chuck Valenches, Huntsville's Brett Pollock, Brevard County's Kirk Agius, and West Virginia's Andy Barch via the sidebar article links to the right of this text. We trust that everyone has enjoyed the interview series, and we will hope to catch up with these gentlemen again after the 2008 season. Here's one last big thank you from Brewerfan to "all the Voices of the Brewer kids". Brewerfan: Steve, I bet it never gets old seeing the fresh-faced newly professional players arrive in Helena for their first workouts. I've got to imagine that must be a fun study to read their faces and get a feel for their emotions each summer. They've all got barely a week under the Maryvale sun as Brewers before they arrive in Montana. Does it ever surprise you how these young men from all walks of life, from all sorts of varying socio-economic backgrounds, form a hopefully cohesive unit, on and off the field so quickly? The challenges at the beginning of a season for a Pioneer Rookie League team must differ from those facing the other affiliates in that regard. Can you talk about the process the front office uses in those key couple of weeks prior to Opening Day in mid-June to "make it happen"? Steve Wendt: It really doesn't surprise me that the players mesh so well despite their differences when they get to Montana because, let's face it, there's strength in numbers. Montana has become a second home to me and I love it, but it is a little off the beaten path. The kids come in and don't know what to expect, so I think that situation alone leads them into a bit of a "groupthink" mentality. They are also helped incredibly by our booster club and host families. Marlene Hughes is a godsend for the Brewers as she volunteers to find host families and match them with players. As for the front office in those early weeks, I try not to even think about them because they are lurking right behind the corner. It's Murphy's Law for the weeks leading up to the season and you feel the pressure. People say that there is no clock in the game of baseball, but if you work in a front office, you can tangibly feel a countdown to that first pitch. Whether you are dealing with publication deadlines, ticketing fiascos or the unexpected pipe burst in the clubhouse, they all seem to happen in that little window. Believe it or not, for most front offices, having Opening Day in the rearview mirror can feel like the best day of the season. BF: Having the Helena broadcasts archived on MLBAM (MLB Advanced Media) has proven to be a boon for us, in that we can direct folks to your calls of a game's key moments, as well as your daily pre-game interviews with staff and players. For nearly all these players, your interviews are among their very first experiences with "the media", and I'm sure there must be a bit of trepidation among the kids at first. You've also shared some wonderful experiences in working with players from Latin America, such as RHP Roque Mercedes, who has made significant strides in his English. Is that a fun part of your broadcast day? You seem to enjoy those chats quite a bit. What's the process in putting an interview together -- setting it up, on the bus, in the dugout... SW: I try to get every player at least one interview during the season, hopefully the day after they've had a big game. To be frank with you, I'll literally grab a guy after batting practice and ask for about five minutes. Considering that I'm also the closest thing that these guys have to a press agent, I usually get the booking. I think you're right about the some of the players' trepidation, but others take to it with a gusto that I fear will put me out of business. It is a fun part of my day in the sense that I like to help the kids exhibit their own humanity a bit. Everyone has a story beyond what they read out on a radar screen or OPS. If guys are a little shy, I'll tend to ask them about their teammates and that usually loosens things up. Players will periodically say less than politically-correct answers and I'll help them backpedal out of that minefield as well. I think I could be accused of leading the witness on occasion but I know it's simply because young players haven't always found their voice yet and I want to help them have an interview that they can be proud of. As for the Latino players, I see how hard these kids work and I think about what a struggle it would be for me being in a foreign country much less being 18 and playing professional baseball. I want the players from Latin America to know that I'm behind them and I don't want them to feel segregated. Roque Mercedes is a great example of a young man that worked hard on his English and people want to know about him in his own words. Maybe these interviews wouldn't fly on network TV, but that's ok. BF: The Great Falls White Sox will become the Great Falls Voyagers this summer, meaning the Helena Brewers are the only one of the eight Pioneer League squads to still maintain the same nickname as the parent club. Although the current player development contract (PDC) between Milwaukee and Helena only runs through this season, you would think that ongoing improvements at Kindrick Legion Field will allow the relationship to be extended. Statistics indicate that this was not a bad defensive infield in 2007, but I imagine the organization is looking forward to seeing an improved playing surface in 2008. SW: The infield was in the best shape I'd ever seen it this past year. Shortly before the team got to Helena, we brought in an infield mix with more clay than we've had in years past. The irrigation of the grass was better also. I think it played comparably to most parks in the league. That being said, we do need a new playing surface and the voters of Helena came through on that one. I think the numbers also indicated that we had a terrific bunch of young infielders this season. I sure hope that the Brewers extend with Helena. From a travel standpoint, it is the most central team in the league. It is a safe and beautiful town for the players with great people. Personally, I've made many friends within the organization and appreciate the quality of people with Milwaukee. BF: Speaking of that infield, the guys who saw the most playing time in 2007 were Eric Farris, Zelous / Zealous Wheeler (help us solve the spelling of the first name mystery!), Steffan Wilson, and Curt Rindal. Please discuss as you wish, perhaps focusing a bit on second baseman Farris' apparently outstanding glove and range, if Wheeler looks like he could handle both spots on the left side, and Wilson's pleasantly surprising power bat. Rindal, out of the University of Washington, turned 24 in September. With a player drafted while older, did you find a sense of urgency in his game? We've seen older players excel in the past, but falter when pushed directly to high-A the following season for instance, in an effort to catch them up. SW: Zelous Wheeler is a delight. When I first saw him, I thought that Jack Z. had bumped his head. Thank goodness I got a chance to see him play. First the name, he said his mom liked the sound of it and decided to spell it with no "a". Simple as that. I'm not one to argue except to say that he truly is full of zeal. He's built like a fire hydrant but has quick feet and probably the softest hands I've seen on a minor leaguer. In addition, he's a great teammate. Farris made plays this season that were hard to comprehend. Basically, if anything was hit on the ground to the right side, it was an out. Not a lot of hyperbole there, simply put he can flat-out play. Steffan Wilson had some monstrous blasts this season, I don't know if his future is in the infield though. If he hits, they'll find a spot for him. It seems weird that a Harvard guy might have to don the tools of ignorance in order to get that shot. Curt Rindal was a steadying influence whose bat got on track late. As for a sense of urgency, I don't know if baseball is a game conducive to urgency. The bat and ball don't know how old you are; all you can do is compete and hope to earn a job. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that David Fonseca has hands like a ninja on the infield and Matt Cline might have been the smoothest fielding player in the mix. That was the best defensive infield I've seen in four seasons in the Pioneer League. BF: Turning to the outfield, corner outfielder Caleb Gindl only turned 19 years old last August, but his left-handed bat rocked to a .372/.420/.580 (1.000 OPS) batting line. We read reports about possible future limitations because of his stature, but those seem unfounded until he proves otherwise. Lee Haydel, another LH bat, didn't wow like Gindl numbers-wise, and his speed (12 of 17 on the basepaths) was evident, but didn't jump off the page, at least statistically (for instance, folks may not realize Eric Farris led the club with 21 SB in 26 attempts). University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee fans are following outfielder Mike Goetz (third on the team in OPS among those with 100+ AB?s). Your thoughts? SW: Caleb Gindl's performance dropped jaws. I'll grant nay-sayers that there are not a ton of 5'9" guys playing outfield in the big leagues, but I've never seen any 19 year-old of any size hit with the same proficiency that Caleb did this summer. I think his health and flexibility (physically) will be more important than whether or not he can dunk a basketball. He hits the ball hard to all fields and he adjusts at the plate with amazing maturity. Lee Haydel played very well the last few weeks of the season. I'm eager to follow Lee's progress with a healthy hand (it was hurt most of the year) and a spring training under his belt. He is blessed with speed, it's just a matter now of translating it into baseball speed. Mike Goetz is great because you just get the feeling people have told him his not good enough every step of the way, and he goes out and proves them to be fools. We had another decent outfielder prospect for a couple weeks named Matt LaPorta. He's good at baseball. BF: Jonathan Lucroy is the latest in a line of Brewer high-round catching prospects, and looks like he may finally be the "one" we've been waiting so long for, to reach his full potential. I'm guessing you weren't surprised by his Hawaiian League performance or the maturity he showed in his off-season journals from the island. SW: Jonathan is an impressive guy. He's bright, engaging and funny when you get to know him. I like that he has opposite field power as a hitter and improved his receiving during the summer. He also has that intangible that most quality catchers have -- leadership. He is straightforward and genuine and guys respect that. Now that the lovefest is over, I have a question for him. What geek brings a laptop to Hawaii? Get to the beach, knucklehead. BF: It was very promising to see that the youngest pitchers on the squad posted the most impressive numbers. Robert Bryson (70 K / 12 BB in 54 IP) looks to be overpowering. Nick Tyson (only 7 BB in 40 IP, WHIP of 0.90) was right there, too. Each had a chance to make a few starts as well. It'll be interesting to see what their roles will be in West Virginia this spring. Was it apparent while calling Evan Anundsen's starts that he was a ground-ball inducing machine (3.25 GB/FB ratio)? And LaCrosse, Wisconsin's R.J. Seidel (3.07 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) sure didn't disappoint the home folks, did he? SW: Bryson and Tyson may be two guys that make us yearn for the "draft and follow" program to return. Each was fun to watch. Learning command of another pitch may be the deciding factor in their roles down the road but both had been starters and college inning totals played a role in their bullpen appearances for Helena. The tandem system did as well. Evan's ability to get the ground ball was fun because it also allowed us to see that great infield in action. R.J. Seidel didn't disappoint the Cheeseheads and made some believers out in Big Sky Country. BF: Steve, be sure to remind the kids this year that the Brewers kept Corey Hart in Pioneer League ball for two full years (Ogden 2000, 2001), which seems almost unthinkable now. Undrafted Vinny Rottino's 2003 season in Helena (.773 OPS) was nice, but gave absolutely no indication that he'd drive in an insane (and Brewer organizational record) 124 runs at Beloit in 04. Who is one player/pitcher we haven't mentioned yet today that may surprise folks this coming season? SW: One pitcher I want to pay attention to is RHP Chad Robinson. I want to see what a healthy and confident Chad Robinson can accomplish because he has the stuff and the build to be a big league rotation guy. We also had lefty Efrain Nieves for a week or so at the end of the year and he looked incredibly promising. BF: As I have with the other announcers (if you choose), please share a favorite on-or-off the field story from 2007 that we may not be aware of, or is worth repeating. Thanks again! SW: A couple of quick stories. Manager Jeff Isom facilitated Helena Idol with the players on the pitcher?s mound before batting practice. The guys had to get on the wireless mic and sing their own national anthem. As you can imagine, there were varying levels of competence and unfortunately the Americans turned it into the Star Mangled Banner. Canadians Brock Kjeldgaard and Craig Langille sang with such passion that we all stopped making fun of Canada for a day or two. I also loved it because I had never heard the Dominican or Venezuelan national anthems. The second was one of the kindest things Helena players have ever done. Spearheaded by Caleb Gindl (all of 18 at the time and batting around .500), the players pooled their money and bought one of our superfans a new bicycle. The fan, Randy, who sits above the dugout at every game and is often waiting for us at the park after we get off the bus, rides his bike everywhere in Helena. The players presented it to him in a ceremony before a game and all signed it. Randy road the bike off the field with tears welling in his eyes. This was a special group of players. Fri, 07 Mar 2008 00:00:00 EST Behind the Microphone ---- West Virginia's Andy "Bull" Barch http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=277 The latest installment in the five-part Brewerfan.net Q&A series with the Milwaukee affiliate broadcasters leads us to Charleston, West Virginia, home of the West Virginia Power, the Brewers' low class-A squad of the South Atlantic League. It was my pleasure to chat with Andy "Bull" Barch, who is entering his fifth season with the club, and thus has been there for each year of the Power / Brewer relationship, which began in 2005. To learn a bit about Andy, visit this link at the Power site: <a href="http://www.wvpower.com/power/frontoffice.aspx#radioguy">http://www.wvpower.com/power/frontoffice.aspx#radioguy</a> If you missed the earlier installments of this series, you can catch up with Nashville's Chuck Valenches, Huntsville's Brett Pollock, and Brevard County's Kirk Agius via the sidebar links to the right of this text. Be sure to check in with us in one week as the series wraps up with Helena play-by-play voice Steve Wendt, who has been patiently waiting in the # 5 spot in our lineup all month. Brewerfan: While the 2007 West Virginia season fell just shy of a championship, it was certainly still a season to remember. 48-20 in the first half, are you kidding? Andy, we can't tell you what an unexpected thrill it was to pull up the thunderous Power lineup numbers in the box score each day. The core of this squad was from a 2006 Helena squad which had hardly overwhelmed. Please share what you experienced being with this team both at home and on the road (where they were 25-8 during the first half). Was it a matter of early success just manifesting itself in increased confidence each day? Andy "Bull" Barch: Your assessment is spot on. I'd say a lot of it was, as you said, early success manifesting itself in increased confidence each day. When you set a franchise record with a 14-game winning streak that starts in the second week of the season, you make it easy to establish a winning mentality. I'd venture to guess that nobody saw that coming. Winning is one thing, but this team did more than just win, they dominated. Perhaps what was more impressive than the early winning streak was the run they went on when they were faced with adversity in the middle of May. The Greensboro Grasshoppers had taken the first three games of a four-game series with the Power, and had a chance to both sweep and take the division lead from the "Boys of Moss, Green and Gold" on May 16th. The Power avoided that sweep with a 14-10 victory over Greensboro and then went on a 22-9 run to finish up the first half and won the division by a LANDSLIDE. It was the greatest single half that I've ever witnessed in my five years of minor league baseball. Even if you had these guys on the ropes, you still couldn't knock them out. They had this never-say-die attitude that made them so fun to watch. Even when they lost games, more often that not, they at least had the tying run at the plate or on the bases. BF: Nobody, but nobody, could have imagined last April that the first individual player I'd ask you about would be a kid coming off a .636 OPS 2006 Helena season, who would then post a .922 OPS as a 20-year-old in Charleston, playing third base for the first time in his career. But what better way to begin that to get your thoughts on the Brewer Organization Player of the Year, Taylor Green. AB: Taylor Green was simply phenomenal last season. He's one of those guys that you find yourself rooting for because he's such a good person. He had an average month of April, before his explosion in May. I think he really turned the corner when he hit a grand slam against the Hagerstown Suns on May 11th. He stepped in with two-outs, a tie game at 4-4, and the Suns had just brought in a lefthander out of the 'pen to face him. Greenie absolutely crushed the first pitch he saw to give the Power the lead and they never looked back. From that day forward, I felt he was a completely different hitter. He went on a tear in May to win the Offensive Player of the Month Award in the organization. It was amazing that he was hitting ninth during the first half of the season, and he was hitting well above .300. Everyone gawks at Greenie's offensive numbers, but he was equally impressive, if not more so, with his glove. From what I heard, he was told that he was going to play third base here just a couple of days before the team arrived in early April, which makes his story even greater. He's a very humble and friendly individual. His parents are great people too. As a matter of fact, during the season they sent us chocolates from their hometown and a few days ago they sent me an autographed picture of Kim Cottrell from Sex and the City. I'm not an avid watcher of the show, but hell, she's hot and it always looks good when a personalized autographed picture of a smokin' hot blonde is on your desk! BF: 19 - 42 - 170 - 53. That's the good and bad, in terms of age, stolen bases, strikeouts, and errors for shortstop Brent Brewer in 2007. Do you think Brent would benefit, as likely did Darren Ford last season, from repeating at low-A to begin 2008? The sky seems the limit, but it could be a turbulent ride in getting to the final destination, it appears. AB: I don't think there is any question that Brewer would benefit from beginning the year in West Virginia. The 53 errors don't worry me as much as the 170 strikeouts. The difference defensively at the beginning of the season and the end is more than night and day. He looked confused and a little uneasy during the first week of the season but (Manager) Mike Guerrero did one hell of a job with him throughout the year. What was amazing to me about Brewer defensively was that he became so fluid and so comfortable so quickly. I mentioned the difference was more than night and day, but I think I noticed the difference in early May. He picked it up very quickly and as athletic as he is, it's scary to think about how much ground he can cover at that position. Offensively, it's pretty obvious that he has to put the ball in play more, and that's why I think another year or half-year would benefit him down here. Fordy cut down on the strikeouts and hit about 60 points higher during the first half here last season before his call up, and I think that's what Brewer needs to catapult him offensively. If he goes down to the Florida State League, I'm not sure that it will help him at the plate because of the way that league is. I think he can build some confidence at the dish with another 70 games down here. BF: When you heard Michael Brantley was going to get bumped directly to AA Huntsville at mid-season, did part of you say, "wait, that makes perfect sense", or "wow, that's a big leap"? In addition to discussing his apparent wonderful plate presence, could you maybe project as to where he would be of most benefit to a squad on the field? AB: I wasn't surprised at all. He hit .300 (finishing in the league's top 10) here during the 2006 season and he hit .335 here in the first half last season while showing a little more pop. He hit his first professional home run in '07 and it was a walk-off bomb against Lexington. He was 20 years old last year and he displayed the maturity and plate discipline of a ten-year big league veteran. He knows how to work the count, he doesn't look for a pitch to hit, he looks for THE pitch to hit. That's something a typical 20-year old at the low-A level doesn't usually do. I thought he was far too advanced for this league mentally at the beginning of last season. He is terrific in left-field and at first base. I sometimes wonder if you are wasting his athleticism at first base, but he played the position so well I can't argue against putting him there. His speed is also EXTREMELY underrated. BF: With the 2007 Power, it seems we could discuss these position players all day and night, but I'll certainly ask you to provide at least brief thoughts on Charleston-franchise HR king Stephen Chapman, what having a guy like Chuckie Caufield around for the full season meant to the team, and my oh my, what has happened with Charlie Fermaint, who you first saw back in 2005. And if you don't mind, what did the Brewers lose in batting champion Andrew Lefave (the Ray King trade) - we sure wish the soon-to-be 24-year-old undrafted surprise well with the Nationals. AB: Steve Chapman had a remarkable season. In speaking with Steve, he told me that he sees himself as more of a line drive hitter, but line drive hitters don't hit 24 bombs a season and set franchise records. To be successful at the next level, he will have to become more of a line drive hitter because a lot of fly balls that leave the yard in the Sally League often end up being long outs in the Florida State League. Steve has a nice stroke and like Brantley, his speed is a bit underrated. His versatility in the outfield is also an asset. When you look at his numbers you want to say he should cut down on the strikeouts, but that's the kind of player Chapman is. It seemed like he was all-or-nothing last year. If he can provide consistency, he will go a long ways. Chuckie Caufield was in the running for team MVP during the first half of the season. He was a bit out of place batting clean-up (where he had never really hit previously) but he took advantage of the situation by driving in Ford, Brantley and Brewer who were constantly on base in front of him. It's hard to believe that nobody picked him in the first 38 rounds of the 2006 draft. He's an exceptional athlete who was a high school quarterback in Oklahoma and threw a lot of passes to Jeremy Shockey. His father played in the NFL and his sister played in the WNBA. Everyone asked me what happened to him in the second half of the season, and I think he just got burnt out. I don't think he got a day off until we were 100 games deep. Believe it or not, that will take its toll on you, especially in your first full season of professional baseball. I don't see any reason why he won't have a great run in Brevard County this season. Chuckie was also a big hit in the community. During one of our school days he had an ENTIRE section cheering for him. The section was full of school kids whom he'd gone to speak to the day before. I don't know what to make of Charlie Fermaint. He started out playing well after the demotion, but then his numbers dropped off significantly during the second half. He's one of those guys that doesn't show much emotion, which can be a good thing. You have to wonder how much longer he'll be able to put up the numbers he has and be content with his place in the organization because he's getting passed by a lot of other great outfielders. He did a good job defensively in center field but the offensive production was a major concern. It became so much of a concern that Mike Guerrero had to take him out of the leadoff spot in the playoffs because he needed someone else who could get on base and make things happen. It's tough to forecast where he will go at the beginning of this year, but at the very best he'll begin the year in Brevard County again. Andrew Lefave was fantastic, and he was certainly a feel-good story. For a guy that wasn't drafted, he's accomplished a hell of a lot in his first two professional seasons. When I had him on the pre-game show he didn't shy away from the fact that he uses that (not being drafted) as motivation. Tearing up the Arizona Rookie League is one thing, but winning the South Atlantic League batting title and smashing a 10-year old franchise record with a .345 batting average puts him in an elite category in franchise history. You have to wonder what might have happened if he had stayed healthy and played in the postseason. I spoke to him about a month ago and he said his wrist feels great. He expects to report to camp with the Nationals at the end of February, a little earlier than everyone else. That is a great sign for him. Because of his age, I'd expect the Nationals to move him through the system quickly. Lefave's approach is very much like Michael Brantley's. He is very patient, works the count, and waits for THE pitch to hit. He can also play multiple positions (LF and 1B) which will help him out in the Nationals' system. BF: At just 32 years old and coming off an eight-year minor league career, Hitting Coach Corey Hart (not to be confused with the current Brewer right fielder) seemed to have a great feel for working with the Power kids, and now he'll follow them along with Manager Mike Guerrero to Brevard County. Did you get a sense of how cohesive Hart's work with the squad was? AB: Absolutely. Corey had a lot of energy and he spent a lot of time with the guys last year in the cage, on the field and in the office. The guys were always anxious to work with Corey and I think a lot of them felt like they could relate to him simply because he's not that far removed from his playing days. As a matter of fact, when I interviewed (Hitting Coordinator) Mike Lum early in the year, one of the first things he mentioned to me was how well Corey Hart was doing. When a guy like Mike Lum goes out of his way to say something like that about you, then you know you're on the right path. He was able to get the guys to believe what he was teaching them, and he helped all of those guys execute their plans individually, which is much tougher than it sounds. On a side note, when the boys went on the road, Corey's son Camden kind of served as the team mascot. He's an adorable little kid that the entire team loved to be around. Corey's wife Stacy took Camden to just about every road game, which is pretty impressive considering all the traveling we do in this league. BF: Andy, before touching on the pitching staff in more detail, I have to ask. Jeremy Jeffress - do you get it, or is seeming willingness to choose marijuana (repeatedly, apparently) over a brilliant pro career beyond comprehension? Can you make us feel better about this story - and then, oh yeah, talk about the kid when he's on the mound too, thanks. AB: Jim, I was hoping you would ask this question. Anyone who thinks Jeremy Jeffress isn't a good kid, hasn't taken the time to get to know him. JJ is a fantastic individual and I truly believe he has learned from his mistakes. I received a few comments about the statement I read on-air on JJ's behalf just before the first playoff game against Hickory. JJ came to me and told me that he wanted to apologize to all of the fans for his actions. I told him that I would be more than happy to relay that message, and I think we should applaud him for doing such a thing. I don't know how many 19-year olds out there would have displayed that kind of maturity in that situation after being so thoroughly disappointed and embarrassed. He has taken responsibility for his actions and he is ready to move on. On the mound, he displays the same kind of maturity. He was calm, cool and quiet on the hill, which is amazing considering the fact that he throws in the mid-90's consistently with a delivery that appears effortless. I saw a lot of similarities between he and Will Inman, in that they really seemed to take their game to another level when they got themselves into trouble. While a lot of guys at this level panic when they pitch in pressure situations, Jeffress stepped up in adverse situations to make things happen. He struck out 95 batters in just over 86 innings. He is extremely athletic and fields his position extremely well, which is sometimes overlooked as a hurler. Despite the setbacks, I still expect JJ to be in a big league uniform in a few years. BF: In the midst of all that early-season offensive thunder, you had the opportunity to call ten outings for then 19-year-old lefty Zach Braddock, in which he simply posted a WHIP of 0.91 while striking out 68 in 47 innings. What kind of dominance were you looking at here -- pre-injury, unfortunately? AB: I'm not going to try to make excuses, but as I mentioned with Lefave earlier, you have to wonder what might have happened had Zach played all year long. The opposition had no chance when Braddock was on the hill. You mentioned the numbers, and the numbers don't lie. He was every bit as dominant as the numbers indicate. The offense gets a ton of attention for the first half push, but guys like Zach Braddock on that pitching staff who contributed a great deal as well should not get overlooked. He throws a very heavy fastball that was extremely tough to hit. I hope he's healthy enough to contribute a full season during 2008, no matter where he ends up. Zach was a terrific guy, and he's also one of the funniest guys I've ever been around. He can do a million different impressions, very much like Frank Caliendo. Like most of the guys Milwaukee sent to West Virginia this year, he was a great person and handled himself with a great deal of class. BF: The rest of the members of the pitching staff were overshadowed a bit by all the offense, but certainly had their own moments. Reliever Omar Aguilar reportedly threw near 100 MPH at times. Alex Periard didn't strike out many, but guiled his way to a successful season. Donovan Hand dazzled with control and effectiveness in his late-season stint. Lefty Brae Wright performed better in Brevard County after a promotion. Roque Mercedes can't seem to translate Helena success into solid performance at West Virgina. A comment or two on each, please... AB: Omar Aguilar has the mentality and the demeanor of a closer. Like many guys, it seemed like his arm got stronger after surgery and he was throwing some serious gas throughout the year. He had a great month of April and appeared to be the clear-cut choice to close games for the Power but then struggled in May and surrendered the job to E.J. Shanks. It was his first full season and he had to battle a few injuries, including a sprained ankle which happened while he was playing catch in Hickory, NC. If he's healthy all of next year I think he'll be just fine in Brevard. You mentioned that Alex Periard didn't strike out many batters, and that's because he didn't have to. He took on the role as the ace of the staff after the Jeremy Jeffress suspension. In the first game of the post season he shut down the Hickory Crawdads through seven sensational innings. Periard pitched to contact, which is what he was taught to do. That was one of the main pitching philosophies, pitch to contact and trust your defense. Periard induced a team high 14 double plays. Physically he has matured over the last few seasons and last year he really burst onto the scene. I expect 2008 to be a breakout year for him. Donovan Hand tossed three strong innings before the rain came during the final game of that Columbus series. He did an outstanding job matching Jeremy Hellickson pitch-for-pitch until they were both taken out of the game due to the two-hour delay. Hand was very successful in the starting role and he was outstanding in the closer's role. I believe they wanted him to close games during August to save his arm because the organization was worried that he'd thrown too many innings before he was drafted. Like Periard, Hand didn't have many strikeouts, but that's because he pitched to contact and was able to get guys out without having to strike them out. I don't see any reason why he won't be able to do the same thing in Brevard next year. I enjoyed watching Brae Wright last season. He was another one of those guys that was a lot of fun to be around. On the mound, there were games where he looked untouchable, then there were games where he struggled to get through five innings. He shut down Hickory on June 11th where he held the 'Dads to a run on four hits over eight innings. That was his finest outing of the season, but he had several other outings that rivaled that. I think at times he would over-think things, instead of just letting his natural ability take over. After looking at what he did in the Florida State League, it's obvious that he was more consistent, and it sure looks like a AA appearance could be in his 2008 future. Roque Mercedes had a few issues with his vision while in West Virginia. They tried to correct that by issuing him a pair of prescription M-frame glasses (much like the ones K-Rod wears), and that seemed to help a little bit. However, the organization felt he needed another year in Helena, which was probably a good idea. It's tough to go 0-4 on a team that won 48 games in the first half, but you certainly could see some promise in Mercedes. I think he was a bit overwhelmed while he was here, but hopefully that changes in 2008. BF: Momentum just seems to be building in Charleston in enthusiasm and appreciation for the affiliate, your wonderful facilities, the gameday atmosphere, and it's a given the Brewers would love to extend with Power management beyond the upcoming season. Because the Brewer / Power relationship began in 2005 and is low-A, the first fruits of that relationship are starting to approach the big league level. So while Power fans may have missed out on Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, etc., I'd say that having Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo represent the Power as their first two big leaguers is well, let's say, impressive. (Currently a Padre, Joe Thatcher is the other West Virginia Power big leaguer.) With a very competitive big league club, do a few Milwaukee hats make their way into the stands now? AB: There are a lot more Brewer fans down here now than there were a few years ago. The success of the Brewers has certainly helped, and seeing guys like Braun, Gallardo and Thatcher succeed has helped as well. That's one of the best things about minor league baseball. My most frequently asked question every single year is "which one of these guys is going to the big leagues?" At this level, these guys are so raw and most of them are new to the professional game that you really don't know. Granted, there certainly are some exceptions, but that's why these games are so fun at this level. You get a chance to meet these guys on a personal level when they are still accessible, and on top of that, ten years later when these guys are in the big leagues, you can tell all of your buddies that you saw these guys when they were 20 years old at the class-A level. BF: 88 AB's, 18 extra-base hits, including ten home runs, and no errors in his 23 Power games, is it safe to say that Matt LaPorta won't have to wait long to join Braun and Gallardo at Miller Park? How'd the young man - man among boys, it seemed -- look in left field (he's expected to see action in both corner spots this season). AB: Well I'd like to think that he'll have no problem getting there in the next two years. I think he exceeded expectations (which were pretty high to begin with) in his six weeks here. If he's healthy to begin the 2008 season, he could begin the year in Huntsville, and who knows, maybe make his way to Nashville before the end of the year. He's on the fast track, there is no question about that. If they were willing to take their time with him, they probably would have kept Geoff Jenkins, but since they let him go, I think that tells you they're ready for LaPorta in the next year or two. I don't know that many people noticed what he was doing defensively because they were mesmerized by the bombs he hit. Defensively he looked fine in left field. He didn't really seem to have any issues out there. He made a few nice throws from left and never looked confused, which is pretty unusual for someone making the transition from catcher and first base. I think he's a much better fit in left field, but then again, I didn't see him play right field at all. BF: Your media relations and broadcast staff really embraced web video more than any of the other affiliates, providing some nice features and profiles, as evidenced by this link: <a href="http://www.wvpower.com/videos/default.aspx">http://www.wvpower.com/videos/default.aspx</a> Can we look forward to even more in that regard in 2008? AB: I appreciate the compliments and so does the rest of our production staff. The only thing that will change is the format of the pre-game show. It has been discussed through the off-season. Instead of having a 16-minute interview for each pre-game show, we will split it up a little bit in the second half of the show. We will still have a few profiles and we will use just a single eight-minute interview. This will help me avoid asking questions during a 16-minute interview like: "What is your social security number? What is your mom's maiden name? Do you enjoy long walks on the beach? How many days did it take you to beat Assassin's Creed on the XBOX 360? Etc." As far as I know, we will put these up in the same form/fashion we did last season. BF: Andy, the West Virginia audio feed which is archived via MLBAM (MLB Advanced Media) hasn't included your pre-game show in the past. We understand there is a "Bull on Baseball" pre-game show that often includes interviews. If so, will you attempt to have MLBAM archive this portion of the broadcast as well for 2008? AB: That's a discussion I've yet to have with MLBAM. I will talk to those guys about that later this month to see if that's a possibility. I've received a few requests to have the show available via the internet and I think that would be a great idea. "Bull on Baseball" is the pre-game show I referenced in that last question. It's a one hour pre-game show, done before home games only. The first half hour is done live at the ballpark. Usually, it's myself, Matt Gatjka and my producer Josh Exline talking baseball for the first half-hour of the show. In the second half of the show, we had two eight-minute interview segments last year, but this year we plan on doing it differently. This year there will be one eight-minute interview segment, followed by a four-minute sports update (scores and stories) which will be followed by a four-minute preview of that day's game. I don't see any changes there for next year, and it would be great if we could archive that, and make that available on the internet. Stay tuned, we'll see what we can do. BF: As I have asked the other Brewer affiliate announcers, I'll ask you if there's a special or favorite on-or-off field story you'd like to share from 2007 that may not have been noticed in print or on the airwaves. Thanks again for your time, Andy. May 2008 be one big Jack-Jackety-Jack of a season! AB: Anytime you are part of a team that wins as much as the Power did last season, you are around guys who are in great moods, are constantly loose and a pleasure to be around. Being a part of the clinching celebration in Lexington last year was an absolute blast. I think that was my favorite part of the season. However the very next day when four guys were called up, it was kind of a wake-up call as I didn't even get a chance to say good-bye or good luck to Brantley, Fordy, Shanks and Mac (Mike McClendon). But that's the life in sports though, you're here one minute, and gone the next especially at this level. I'd like to take this last bit of space here to say thanks to you Jim, and the rest of the staff at brewerfan.net. You guys do a terrific job and I have often used you guys as a resource when I'm searching for information on a player within the system. The team appreciates the publicity you have provided us. On a personal level, every radio announcer wants his voice to be heard, and when you link my broadcast every single night, that does nothing but help me. I appreciate that, because I need all the help I can get! Wed, 27 Feb 2008 00:00:00 EST 2008 Draft Preview http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=281 The 2008 draft will mark the ninth under the guidance of Scouting Director Jack Zduriencik, and prior to this year he has not had a single extra, compensatory selection due to free agents that signed with other teams. In fact, he has done a commendable job procuring talent through the draft doing so without second round picks in 2000, 2005 and 2007 due to the free agent acquisitions of Jose Hernandez, Damian Miller and Jeff Suppan. With six picks among the top 62 overall selections, and seven within the top 94, Zduriencik stands to add a considerable amount of talent to a system that is still strong, but has been weakened due to recent promotions of young stars such as Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra, as well as a few trades in which prospects were included to acquire established Major Leaguers, most notably the deal to acquire set-up man Scott Linebrink a year ago. Linebrink's departure via free agency, as well as the departure of former Brewers closer Francisco Cordero has brought the team two supplemental first- round picks and the second round picks of the White Sox and Reds. Similar to past years, I am going to profile some of the top talent eligible for the 2008 draft, position-by-position, focusing on the Brewers overall depth at each position while also trying to identify a few candidates that Zduriencik and his staff may be targeting. Catcher Almost every team in baseball is in need of catching talent, arguably the most difficult position to fill given how so few catchers in baseball can both hit and play good enough defense for such a demanding position. The Brewers are no different, and the team has come out and stated that catching is a glaring organizational need despite the presence of prospects such as Angel Salome and Jonathan Lucroy. Best of the bunch: College: Buster Posey, Florida State High School: Kyle Skipworth, Riverside, CA The Brewers won't have the chance to take either one of these young players, as Posey is a favorite to go first overall to the Rays, and Skipworth is one of the most lethal sluggers in high school baseball, which means he's unlikely to fall past the top five to seven overall selections. They should have a chance to take Stanford's Jason Castro, who has carried over the success at the plate from the summer of 2007, when he was a Cape Cod League All-Star, to this spring, as he has a good overall tool-set, now hitting as well as he catches defensively. Petey Paramore is one of college baseball's more patient sluggers, and while he stepped onto Arizona State's campus known more for his bat than his defense, he has worked hard to improve his defense despite not living up entirely to his offensive reputation. Both Bayamon, Puerto Rico native Antonio Jiminez and Adrian Nieto of Key West are active, athletic catchers with interesting offensive potential and should be in the mix for the early rounds. Keep an eye on: Brett Lawrie, Langley, British Columbia Lawrie's powerful bat and athletic versatility has some scouts thinking about taking him and developing him as a catcher. With a strong arm and good lateral quickness, he has the tools to make the move, but patience would be required for him to make the necessary adjustments. UC Davis' Jake Jefferies is another catcher that is rising quickly up draft boards this season with a left-handed swing made for making consistent hard contact and solid receiving skills behind the plate. My pick: Jason Castro, Stanford Castro would have to be the Brewers first-round pick for them to have a chance at adding him to their system, but he is exactly what the organization needs in a take-charge leader with good athleticism and a powerful left-handed stroke. First Base If catching is one of the biggest organizational needs, first base has to be the one position the Brewers probably don't have to address in the early rounds of the draft, not only this year, but for the next few seasons. Prince Fielder of course is entrenched at first base, and even if he does move on in a few years when he becomes a free agent, the organization has several internal candidates to take his spot including Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel and Chris Errecart, all three of which are currently playing and hitting well at AA Huntsville. Best of the bunch: College: Justin Smoak, South Carolina High School: Eric Hosmer The 2008 draft class is loaded with first baseman, with five college sluggers poised to go in the first round: Smoak, Miami's Yonder Alonso, Arizona State's Brett Wallace and Ike Davis, Cal's David Cooper and Wake Forest's Allan Dykstra. Eric Hosmer (Cooper City, FL) is one of the best high school hitters to come along in recent years. He has a very good eye and easy power to all fields. He also has shown his prowess on the mound this spring, hurling easy mid-to-upper 90s heat. His affiliation with Scott Boras may cause Hosmer to fall in the draft similar to how right-handed pitcher Rick Porcello fell a year ago. Keep an eye on: Shane Peterson, Long Beach State Peterson isn't going to sneak up on anyone, as he entered the season in the same breath as David Cooper with a smooth left-handed swing. His power hasn't emerged as much as Cooper's has this spring, but he has shown that he can swing the wood bat with a strong showing last summer on the Cape, and he has a slick glove at the first base bag. My pick: Randy Molina, Stanford Molina is the second of two Stanford players to represent my picks at both catcher and first base. Molina is a big, hulking first baseman that hits for average a lot more so than he does for power. His opposite field approach would lead you to believe that more power could be there if he starts to learn to drive the ball more consistently. He's not a candidate to go in the early rounds, but the Brewers likely won't be looking to add a first baseman early. Second Base Second base is a difficult position to call a need, since so many second basemen are converted shortstops. Therefore it is difficult to assess whether or not second base in the Brewers organization is a true need. Rickie Weeks continues to draw scrutiny at the big-league level, while Mike Bell and Eric Farris give the organization some depth while Hernan Iribarren was converted to an outfielder to maximize his value through versatility. Best of the bunch: College: Jemile Weeks, Miami High School: Rolando Gomez, Pembroke Pines, FL Jemile Weeks not only is the best second baseman available in the draft, he also is the best leadoff hitter available, with an exciting tool package highlighted by his speed. Jemile may not have the power potential of his older brother Rickie, but he also may profile better as a leadoff hitter and second baseman defensively. Rolando Gomez is a shorter, scrappy middle infielder that currently plays shortstop with aplomb. While his measureables aren't ideal, he continues to wow scouts with his refined game and aggressive approach, and may have to make the switch to second base down the road. While Jemile Weeks is clearly the best of the class, the University of Virginia's David Adams is clearly the second best, and could go as high as the supplemental round for his line drive bat, and he has proven in two stints on the Cape that he handles the wood bat just as well as a metal one. Keep an eye on: Tyler Landendorf, Howard JC (TX) Landendorf currently plays shortstop, but at some point likely will have to move to second or centerfield. He's has an exciting combination of blazing speed and budding power, with the power developing this spring. He has been rising up draft boards, and could very well be a first-round pick. My pick: Dan Brewer, Bradley A natural fit to the Brewers, just like Brent Brewer was two years ago. Dan Brewer is the opposite type of prospect as Brent, with limited height and tools, but an aggressive approach to the game and a bat made to shoot balls from gap to gap. Brewer has played just about everywhere on the field, and may settle in nicely at second base as a pro. Third Base Third base has gone from an organizational weakness to a strength, and now back to a weakness, at least according to the Brewers. Ryan Braun obviously has been moved to the outfield, with Bill Hall moving back to the infield. Top prospect Mat Gamel has had his troubles defensively at the hot corner, and Taylor Green is three to four years away from contributing. Best of the bunch: College: Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt High School: Anthony Hewitt, Brooklyn, NY Georgia prep Ethan Martin would probably be the top rated high school third baseman, but he's exploded this year as a right-handed pitcher and seems to be drawing more interest for his arm than for his equally powerful bat. Alvarez entered the year as the unanimous top draft-eligible prospect given his impressive productivity as a left-handed slugger, and the only reason he falls to the Brewers is if his affiliation with Scott Boras scares off the 15 teams drafting ahead of them. Hewitt may be in line to replace Alvarez at third as a Vanderbilt recruit and fellow New York native, but Hewitt has impressed scouts so much this spring that he may be drafted as early as the first round which would likely mean he never steps on Vandy's campus. Junior college talent Lonnie Chisenhall (Pitt College, NC), Wichita State's Conor Gillaspie and South Carolina's James Darnell are natural run producers, with Chisenhall and Gillaspie boasting solid contact lefty bats not unlike Mat Gamel's, while Darnell is all about power from the right side of the plate. Both might have to move to right field at the pro level. Keep an eye on: Ricky Oropesa, Rancho Cucamonga, CA Oropesa has picked up this spring where Mike Moustakas left off last year in Southern California. With an imposing presence at the plate and big-time power from the left-side of the plate, Oropesa isn't a candidate to go as high as Moustakas did last year, but he is soaring up draft charts. My pick: Conor Gillaspie, Wichita State If Wichita State third baseman Conor Gillaspie falls to one of the Brewers supplemental picks, he would be a natural fit as a pure, left-handed hitter, although there are some questions about his defense at the hot corner, which isn't exactly encouraging given the Brewers recent troubles finding a third sacker that is just as competent with the glove as he is with the bat. Shortstop While shortstop may not seem to be much of a need in the Brewers organization, with J.J. Hardy at the big-league level, Alcides Escobar not too far from possibly moving Hardy to another position, and the exciting, multi-tooled Brent Brewer in low-A, shortstops often are moved to other positions to make the most of their abilities. The Brewers haven't taken too many shortstops with their early picks in recent years, but have a history of success with shortstops, even if they do move to another position, as shown with players such as Gorman Thomas, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Dale Sveum, Gary Sheffield and Bill Spiers. Best of the bunch: College: Gordon Beckham, Georgia High School: Tim Beckham, Griffin, GA The Brewers won't have a chance to take either of these players, as Tim Beckham is a candidate to go first overall, and Gordon Beckham (no relation) won't last much longer. Overall the shortstop class is rather weak, as two-way Florida prep talent Casey Kelly (if he's drafted as a shortstop) and South Carolina's Reese Havens are the only other players that have a chance to be taken in the first round, and Havens may have to move to second or third base as a pro. Vanderbilt's Ryan Flaherty could be selected as early as the supplemental round, but similar to Havens, many believe he is going to have to move to either second or third base sooner rather than later due to the lack of ideal range. Another Florida prep infielder, Harold Martinez, entered the season as a top 10 overall talent, but a difficult season has dropped his stock significantly. Keep an eye on: Niko Vasquez, Las Vegas, NV A smaller but wiry strong and pesky middle infielder, Vasquez has been drawing bigger and bigger crowds from the scouting community after taking advantage of some very strong showings at larger tournament events earlier this spring. With solid range, a strong arm and an improving bat, he could be drafted as early as the sandwich round. My pick: Jason Christian, Michigan Christian is a four-tool talent only missing raw power to make him a true five- tool talent, and even then he can smack the ball from gap-to-gap. He hits for a good average from the left-side of the plate, has good speed and plays solid defense. His ceiling may be limited somewhat, but he's a steady and heady ballplayer. Corner Outfield The Brewers depth at both of their outfield corners rivals their depth at first base. Ryan Braun clearly isn't going anywhere for a long, long time, and most fans hope the same is true for Corey Hart, even if Hart could move to center down the road. Matt LaPorta and Cole Gillespie both offer promise at either corner spot at AA Huntsville, while fellow Huntsville Star Mat Gamel may be a candidate for either left or right field as well. From the big-leagues down to the lower levels of the system, the Brewers have plenty of big bats to turn to. Best of the bunch: College: Eric Thames, Pepperdine High School: Destin Hood, Mobile, AL The outfield class as the college level is definitely the weakest category of all draft-eligible players. While Thames has been playing center for the Wave for most of the spring, he profiles best in left field despite a solid overall tool-set. His willingness to go up the middle and the other way has allowed him to finally break out this year. Texas Tech's Roger Kieschnick is more of a prototypical corner outfielder with an exciting power bat, power arm combination, but he struggles to make consistent contact with a big swing that makes him prone to strikeouts. The high school class also doesn't offer too many exciting corner outfield prospects, but Destin Hood is an impressive physical specimen and his athleticism has led to a football commitment to Alabama where he would play wide receiver. He currently plays shortstop on the baseball diamond, but he's destined for either left or right field. Him sharing top honors with Ethan Martin as the co-winners of the home run derby at the Aflac All-American Classic gives you an idea of what kind of power potential this young man has. Keep an eye on: Kyle Russell, Texas Russell will be interesting to follow in the draft since he's the one player listed as a player to keep an eye on that isn't really tearing things up, especially after leading the nation in home runs a year ago as a draft-eligible sophomore. He turned down significant money as a fourth round pick of the Cardinals a year ago, and may return to Texas for his senior year in an attempt to re-gain his prospect status. My pick: Mike Bianucci, Auburn Bianucci is a proven run producer in the mold of Xavier Nady. He has good bat speed and power as a right-handed hitter, although his athleticism is somewhat limited with stiff body actions and a fringe average arm. He may find his spot at the big-league level similar to someone like Nady or even Kevin Mench as a platoon corner outfielder that destroys left-handed pitching. Centerfield Centerfield is a little less settled in the Brewers organization than their corner spots, although there is some exciting yet unproven talent to look forward to. The names include Darren Ford, Lorenzo Cain and Lee Haydel, with Ford and Haydel possessing game-changing speed. Big-leaguer Mike Cameron holds down the spot for now, with Corey Hart being a possible replacement in a year or two. Best of the bunch: College: Jordan Danks, Texas High School: Aaron Hicks, Long Beach, CA Similar to the corner outfield group, there isn't a college centerfielder that is a sure thing to go in the early rounds. Jordan Danks, the younger brother of big-league lefty John Danks, was a potential first-rounder coming out of high school, but made it clear that he was heading to college. He has good speed, power potential and a patient eye, but his game has not yet blossomed given the amount of talent he possesses. Aaron Hicks may be the most exciting draft-eligible prospect, and scouts are spilt as to whether his future lies in the outfield or as an electric right- handed pitcher. His speed and arm strength are his strongest tools, and he has a potent bat as a switch-hitter and brings mid-90s heat with a killer curveball off the mound. Few prospects have risen up draft boards as much as Chino Hills' (CA) Zach Collier. With long and wiry limbs and a lefty swing made for both contact and power, the absence of outfielders in this draft class may cause a team to take Collier higher than where they normally would. No player can match the speed of Stockbridge, Georgia's Xavier Avery. He is a talented overall athlete that has committed to play football as either a running back or a cornerback, and despite his two-sport interests scouts are impressed with just how refined his game is. Keep an eye on: Jay Austin, Atlanta, GA Austin's five-tool talents have him rising up draft boards this spring. His game is highlighted by his game-changing speed, and he has some surprising pop from the left-side of the plate. My pick: L.J. Hoes, Mitchellville, MD Hoes was named the top prospect in the Cal Ripken Sr. summer league last year playing amongst college players as a prep centerfielder. With good athleticism and versatility, Hoes is a converted infielder whose smooth, gliding actions makes him a perfect fit for center. Signing him away from North Carolina may be difficult. Right-handed Pitcher Pitching is definitely thin in the Brewers system, and I am expecting the team to load up on arms with several of their early picks. Even if the team did have a glut of pitching depth, you can never have too much pitching. Best of the bunch: College: Aaron Crow, Missouri High School: Tim Melville, Wentzville, MO Aaron Crow should easily be gone among the top five to seven overall selections, but Tim Melville is an interesting player whose stock may be in flux somewhat as he started the spring rather cold. His stuff and command has improved significantly as the weather has improved, and he may have re-established himself as a lock to go in the first half of the first round. Shooter Hunt (Tulane), Brett Hunter (Pepperdine) and Tanner Scheppers (Fresno State) gave the draft a trio of solid college starters after Crow, but Scheppers and Hunter now have some significant health issues clouding their future, as both may tumble in the draft because of it. Hunt still figures to go among the top 10 picks. Many of the top prep arms star both as pitches and as hitters, which makes it a little more difficult to gauge the overall talent level. Aaron Hicks, Ethan Martin and Casey Kelly all have equally or greater potential as pitchers, yet many scouts seem to be split on the future of each of these three players. Sonny Gray (Smyrna, TN) entered the spring as a likely first-round pick despite questions about his sub-6' frame. His lightning quick arm and electric stuff drew unfair comparisons to Roy Oswalt, but an ankle injury that cut Gray's season short may hurt his draft stock. Paducah, Kentucky prep righty Daniel Webb had some injury issues a year ago, but has since overcome them and has been one of the more consistent performers since last fall, regularly sitting in the 92-94 range with a strong build and good curveball. Gerrit Cole (Santa Ana, CA) and Bubba Meyer (Greensburg, IN) have very good arms, but both have made their signability a huge question mark by aligning themselves with Scott Boras. Don't be surprised to see them end up at UCLA and Kentucky respectively. Highland, Illinois' Jake Odorizzi has been moving up all spring, and now figures to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, and may even be a candidate for the Brewers at #16 given his athletic, projectable frame, loose arm and easy velocity. Quinton Miller of Medford, New Jersey has a similar profile of size and stuff to Odorizzi. The second and third tiers of the top college righties includes Michigan's Zach Putnam, Ole Miss' Lance Lynn, Cal's Tyson Ross and Virginia's Jacob Thompson. Putnam and Lynn have pretty good stuff and strong, athletic builds, while Thompson and Ross are built tall and lanky that get the majority of their outs by changing speeds and hitting their spots with good but not great stuff. Keep an eye on: Chris Carpenter, Kent State Ross Seaton, Sugar Land, TX Many felt Carpenter could have snuck into the late first-round a year ago before more and more teams backed off due to past injury concerns. Carpenter has stayed healthy this year and has one of the harder, more consistent fastball among those eligible for the draft, and he's starting to get his breaking pitch over more consistently as well. Seaton has an equally tall and projectable frame to Carpenter, and his improving fastball velocity and overall command on his three-pitch repertoire has Seaton thinking about the late first or supplemental round. My pick: Sonny Gray, Smyrna, TN Gray's injury concerns don't involve his arm, and while there is some concern about his max effort delivery leading some to believe he'll eventually settle in the bullpen down the road, his fastball-curveball combo is one of the best available. He would make a great pick for one of the team's two sandwich round picks. Left-handed Pitcher It wasn't too long ago when it seemed as though the organization was bursting with talented left-handed pitchers. Zach Braddock is one of the team's brightest prospects, but Manny Parra has graduated from prospect status while Jorge de la Rosa never progressed as hoped and was eventually dealt to the Royals. Dana Eveland was traded to the Diamondbacks as part of a package for Johnny Estrada, and both Joe Thatcher and Steve Garrison were shipped to the Padres for Linebrink. Best of the bunch: College: Brian Matusz, San Diego High School: Mike Montgomery, Valencia, CA Matusz has been tabbed one of the top prospects for the 2008 draft since his impressive freshman debut for the San Diego Toreros. He has a big, workhorse frame with a well-rounded four-pitch arsenal, making him a favorite to go among the top three to five overall picks. Montgomery is one of the fastest rising players in the nation, and now takes the honors as the top prep lefty with size and stuff similar to Matusz'. He has leap-frogged prep lefties such as Kyle Lobstein (Flagstaff, AZ) and Jarret Martin (Bakersfield, CA), who haven't had the success this spring that they both put on display last summer. Brett DeVall (Niceville, FL) could sneak into the first round, but is more likely to be a sandwich pick or early second rounder. He too is having a big spring, but usually pitches in the 88-91 range without much physical projection left in his frame. Eastern Kentucky's Christian Friedrich is likely going to be the second lefty off of the board, with a big-time curveball that draws a lot of comparisons to Barry Zito. Tim Murpny (UCLA) and Wade Miley (Southeastern Louisiana) also possess a pretty nice curveball to go along with upper-80s to low-90s heat. Kentucky also boasts a pair of prep southpaws in Robbie Ross and Nick Maronde. Maronde is a similar pitcher to Josh Smoker, a first-round supplemental pick a year ago given his well-rounded repertoire and desire to succeed, while Ross is a shorter yet extremely athletic player that also stars as a hitter. Anthony Gose of Bellflower, CA might be the draft class' most exciting player outside of Aaron Hicks, and like Hicks stars as a dual-threat, with his electric left-arm being his most impressive tool. Keep an eye on: Evan Fredrickson, San Francisco Tyler Stovall, Hokes Bluff, AL Fredrickson follows first-round pick Aaron Pordeda for the Dons this year, and similar to Poreda has a big, athletic body to go along with very good stuff for a left-handed pitcher. He really struggles with control however, walking nearly a batter an inning throughout his career. Stovall is a curveball specialist that may throw the pitch more than he needs to or even should. He has good enough fastball velocity to establish that pitch more to then work in his offspeed stuff. His feel for three pitches makes him more polished than his college counterpart in Fredrickson. My pick: Cole St. Clair, Rice St. Clair was expected to be a first-round pick in the 2007 draft, but an injury limited his appearances during the spring, and by the time he was healthy scouts had a difficult time getting out to see him to see if he was worthy of an early round pick. He started this season off slow opening the year out of the rotation, and has since moved back to the bullpen where he continues to flourish. St. Clair has a deep enough repertoire and workhorse build to succeed as a starter, and could reward any team that takes him if they're patient enough to let him develop despite being a fairly polished college pitcher. Closer I added this category a year ago given how many teams are targeting short relievers in the early rounds, with the Rockies taking Casey Weathers one pick after the Brewers selected Matt LaPorta a year ago. With so many extra, early picks, the Brewers may be looking to use one of them to take such a pitcher, especially given the instability of their current bullpen and no real future closer to point to. Best of the bunch: Joshua Fields, Georgia Fields and TCU's Andrew Cashner really could share the honors here, but I'm picking Fields since he's been doing it longer. Fields, a college senior, like Cole St. Clair was expected to be a first-round pick a year ago. A disappointing junior year caused him to slip to the second round, where he turned down big money from the Atlanta Braves to return to Georgia to improve his draft stock. And that's exactly what he has done, as the mid-90s velocity has returned on his heater as had the wicked life on his breaking pitch. His delivery is somewhat max-effort, which draws some concerns, and he has the tendency to be a little wild, but he could be getting out big-league hitters right now with his stuff. The same could be said about Cashner, who throws in the mid-to-upper 90s with ease. He has flourished in a short relief role at TCU since transferring from Angelina junior college where he was used as a starter prior to the 2008 season. It seems each and every year more and more college closers emerge as potential early round picks. Kyle Weiland (Notre Dame), Josh Lindblom (Purdue), Carlos Gutierrez (Miami), Bryan Price (Rice), Ryan Perry (Arizona) Long Beach State's Bryan Shaw and Texas A&M's Zach Stewart all have impressive, power stuff and are likely to be taken in the top two to three rounds. Michigan's Zach Putnam and Ole Miss' Cody Satterwhite might eventually move to the bullpen where their repertoires might be a better fit. Keep an eye on: Scott Bittle, Mississippi Bittle may not have the same power arm that the player's listed above do, but he may have the single greatest signature pitch of any draft-eligible player in his cutter. He maxes out in the 88-91 range, but his fastball has so much run and his slider dives into the dirt so violently that he is extremely difficult to hit. My pick: Aaron Weatherford, Mississippi State I have been hyping up Weatherford ever since I learned that his velocity was sitting in the 95-97 range all last fall. He's a shorter yet athletic pitcher similar to Joshua Fields, and is posting equally impressive numbers in the tough SEC conference. Likely Candidates The most likely candidates to go to the Brewers first-round pick, or even beyond, can be broken down into a few categories. Should the team look to address a college closer early, Joshua Fields and Andrew Cashner could both be had at #16. If the team wants to add a more polished, left-handed hitter to either third base or catcher, Conor Gillaspie or Jason Castro would be ideal fits. Taking a prep pitcher is always a risky proposition, and not something most Brewers fans are willing to swallow given the troubles of pitchers such as Mike Jones, Mark Rogers and even Jeremy Jeffress' off-field issues. Sonny Gray's injury this spring wasn't related to his arm, while Daniel Webb and Jake Odorizzi could fit at #16. Gerrit Cole and Bubba Meyer might as well, but I honestly don't see the Brewers getting involved with a player that is going to be considered a difficult one to sign. Probably the one area that offers the greatest area of strength at where the Brewers draft are toolsy high school multi-dimensional athletes. Aaron Hicks, Anthony Gose, Casey Kelly, Zach Collier and Anthony Hewitt all apply. Hewitt is starting to get more and more attention as arguably the draft's most athletic players, while Collier might be the most talented hitter from high school. Casey has a promising football career ahead of him at Tennessee as a quarterback should he choose to go that route, but has made it be known that he would be more wiling to sign should the team that does so takes him as an everyday player over a pitcher. Hicks and Gose are drawing more and more interest as pitchers, but has the tools to be electrifying centerfielders should they be developed that way. The Brewers have a history of taking players earlier than where many people believe those players should be taken, as they astutely took Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Matt LaPorta at the spots they did. With that, don't be surprised to see them take a player on the rise such as junior college infielder Tyler Ladendorf, Canadian prep infielder/catcher Brett Lawrie or prep pitcher Ross Seaton. On the flip side, keep your eyes on a pair of powerful college arms that could fall due to injuries this spring: Fresno State's Tanner Scheppers and Pepperdine's Brett Hunter. Neither would have fallen to the Brewers pick at #16 if they had been healthy all spring, and given the number of extra picks they have they may choose to take such a risk. The Brewers select? Your guess is as good as mine, as I certainly haven't had much luck accurately picking the Brewers top pick, particularly last year when I had heard from numerous reliable sources that the team was zeroing on Canadian prep righty Phillippe Aumont. Trying to predict the other early picks that the Brewers possess only makes this task more difficult, as we haven't yet seen what Jack Zduriencik is capable of when he has so many extra, early picks. Will money become a factor? Will the team look to address a few organizational needs? Or will they adhere to the always enigmatic ?best player available? mantra? For now I'll just say that Stanford's Jason Castro makes a lot of sense for a variety of reasons to fill more of an immediate need, Joshua Fields could fill an immediate need almost instantaneously, while Anthony Hewitt fits the Jack Zduriencik mold given his impressive tool-set more than any other player. Please be sure to visit Brewerfan.net's default draft page to read more details on the top 100 draft-eligible prospects, and also be sure to visit the fan forum to join in the active discussion. Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at <a href="mailto:pebert@brewerfan.net">pebert@brewerfan.net</a>. Tue, 27 May 2008 00:00:00 EDT