Just 16 games remain in the 2008 season, and the Brewers and the Phillies are matching up in a huge four-game series in Philadelphia starting Thursday night. The Brewers currently lead the Phillies and the red-hot Houston Astros by 4 games in the Wild Card standings, while the St. Louis Cardinals sit 4.5 games back.

            The two teams split a closely contested 2-game series in April at Miller Park, and both teams are struggling heading into the series. The Brewers are coming off a terrible 3-7 homestand, while Philadelphia just dropped 2/3 to the Marlins at home.

            Some disturbing numbers are coming from the Brewers two top run producers, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. Over his last 24 games, Prince is hitting .178. That number is perhaps the most flattering. In that time, he has a total of 9 hits...only 1
of them for extra bases, and that was a double! Amazing. His OPS over that time is an Enrique Cruz-esqe .478. Compare that with light-hitting and pretty awful by now Craig Counsell. Over the course of his last 24 games, Counsell carries an OPS of still terrible but over 100 points better .605..with two more XBH's.
            Meanwhile, Braun has no extra base hits in his last 9 games, or a home run in 12. He's hitting .188 over that relatively short amount of time. Prince's numbers are certainly much more damning, but Braun is either in the worst slump of his career, or hurting badly. For the sake of the Brewers, I'll hope it's just a bad slump.

Game One: Ben Sheets (13-7, 2.82 ERA) v. Jamie Moyer (13-7, 3.64 ERA)

            The series opener pits the Brewers Ace1A, versus Jamie Moyer, who made his major league debut in 1986. His mound counterpart that day? Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who took the loss for the Phillies in a 7-5 Cubs win.

            Sheets has been outstanding in his last 3 starts. After shutting out the Cardinals in 6 innings, he was on the plus side of a 2-0 battle with Johan Santana and the Mets before he was pulled with a tight groin.

            He put Brewers fans’ worst nightmares to rest when he then put up an outstanding performance on Saturday against San Diego, throwing his 5^th complete game of the season, and 3^rd shutout, beating fellow ace Jake Peavy in a 1-0 virtuoso performance. The game, which ended with a Will Venable 3-2 groundout to 2^nd with the tying run on 3^rd, saw Sheets throw 120 pitches, the 3^rd time this season he’s reached into the 120’s for a pitch count.

            The other two outings were followed by outings on regular (4 days) rest, and one on 5 days. The results were encouraging, as he allowed three runs over 12 innings. Sheets has been very consistent this year, allowing more than four runs just four times in 28 starts. The Crew has been good in his starts, going 17-11, and have given him decent run support, though the total of 4.5 is skewed by 4 games of 9 or more. The Brewers have given him two runs or less in 8 outings.

            Although Sheets hasn’t faced the Phils this year, he did pitch a really solid game at First Citizens last season, going 7.2 innings and allowing just two runs in a taut 3-2 Brewers victory.

            Meanwhile Moyer, who will pitch on 3 days rest after shutting down the Mets Sunday, is aging like a fine wine, holding lefties to a .228 average while allowing 7 home runs. His numbers against righties aren’t awful, either, as they have a .749 OPS against the veteran, including 11 home runs. He has been better on the road than at home, not surprising considering First Citizens Park is a hitters park (105 on the park factor: anything over 100 is a hitters advantage; for the sake of comparison, Miller Park is a 102).   

            He faced the Brewers back in April, and despite allowing 11 baserunners over the course of 6 innings, allowed just one role in a solid pitchers duel with Jeff Suppan. The Phillies would go on to win 3-1 when David Riske allowed two 8^th inning runs. Last season, the Brewers roughed Moyer up, as JJ Hardy hit a three-run home run in a game where the Brewers allowed six 8^th inning runs (remember that one, kids?) to lose 8-6.

Game Two: Manny Parra (10-7, 4.03 ERA) v. Cole Hamels (12-9, 3.12 ERA)

            Although Parra’s overall numbers look OK, his pitching of late hasn’t exactly inspired a lot of confidence as the Brewers head down the stretch. In his last outing, he allowed just one earned run, but 6 overall as a disastrous 3^rd inning and an unhittable Chris Young performance doomed the Brewers to a 10-1 loss. He didn’t pitch against the Phillies in the brief two-game series back at Miller Park, and indeed pitched only once against them last year. That was another terrible memory for Brewers fans, as he took the loss, giving up two runs in the 11^th inning of an 8-6 setback. In that game, the Phillies scored five runs in the 9^th inning to tie the game at 6.

            Hamels, meanwhile, has already thrown 208 innings, the most in the National League. He started in what was one of the best games of the ’08 season back in April. After allowing three 1^st inning runs, including a Prince Fielder 2-run home run, Hamels completely dominated Milwaukee, striking out 11 while the offense came back on Dave Bush. Leading 4-3 heading into the 8^th, Hamels gave up a leadoff double to Ryan Braun, and Fielder came up huge, hitting a two-run home run to right field to give the Brewers the lead, and, when Derrick Turnbow got the nail-biting save, the victory.

            Last season, Hamels allowed just two runs in 8 innings against Milwaukee at First Citizens Park, striking out 11 in the process. He then was again involved in a memorable game, as he allowed four runs over seven innings at Miller Park, exiting with a 5-4 lead. However, Fielder struck again, hitting a two-run monster blast off of Tom Gordon to give the Crew the lead. When Corey Hart robbed Tadahito Iguchi of a home run with one out in the 9^th, the Brewers hung on for the win.   

Game Three: Dave Bush (9-10, 4.23 ERA) v. Joe Blanton (7-12, 4.86 ERA)

            Bush has pitched very well of late, and his overall numbers are starting to reflect his overall solid performance, as opposed to his uncharacteristic stumbling out of the ’08 gate. He is coming off at a terrific 8-inning, 2-run performance against the Reds, and has gone 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA over his last 14 starts. As mentioned previously, Bush pitched a decent game in April against Philly, allowing four runs over six innings, all on home runs to Dobbs, Burrell, and Worth. Last season, he went 10.1 innings and allowed 7 runs over the course of two starts.  

            Blanton is a classic innings-eater, going at least 194 in the first three years of his career, and currently sitting at 179 in 2008. Traded from the A’s in July for three minor leaguers, Blanton has been solid but certainly far from spectacular with the Phils, going 2-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 8 starts. His last outing was middling, as he allowed four runs over five innings against Florida. In five starts at Citizens Bank Park, he has pitched just 25 innings. He has never faced the Brewers in his career.

Game Four: Jeff Suppan (10-8, 4.63 ERA) v. Kyle Kendrick (11-9, 5.44 ERA)

            Suppan has been pretty decent over his last 8 starts, going 5-1 with a 3.76 ERA in that span. He is coming off a disappointing start on Tuesday against San Diego, which saw him allow 4 runs in 5.1 innings of work. As mentioned before, he was outstanding early in the season against the Phillies, allowing just one run over seven innings of work. In his only start at Citizens Park last season, he allowed 7 runs (4 earned) over six innings to get the loss.

            Kendrick might not get the start on Sunday, as he has really struggled of late. In his last six starts, he’s gone 1-4 with a horrid 11.35 ERA. He’s pitched only 23 innings in those outings, and given up 29 runs, including five home runs. J.A. Happ, who had two outings for the Phils in July, and pitched again in relief on Tuesday, allowing three runs in 3.1 innings to the Marlins. Another option would be pitching Brett Myers, who would be starting on three days rest. Kendrick pitched well last August in Milwaukee, giving up only two runs in seven strong innings in his only appearance against the Brewers.